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Women’s March Madness: Dark Horse Final Four picks

With a solid projected Final Four, will there be any upsets on the road to Phoenix?

COLLEGE BASKETBALL: FEB 26 Women’s Arkansas at Oklahoma
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: FEB 26 Women’s Arkansas at Oklahoma
NORMAN, OK - FEBRUARY 26: during the SEC women’s college basketball game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Arkansas Razorbacks on February 26, 2026 at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman OK. (Photo by Chad Hamilton/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Chelsea Leite has been writing about professional basketball since 2021, and covers both the Toronto Raptors and Toronto Tempo as a credentialed reporter for SB Nation.

The women’s NCAA landscape currently has four superpower teams: The UConn Huskies, UCLA Bruins, Texas Longhorns and South Carolina Gamecocks. They have been in a top tier of their own all season long, competing for positioning when it came to what order they would be ranked in come the postseason.

While these four teams are the favorites to make it to the Final Four in Phoenix, Arizona, it’s also called March Madness for a reason. You never know what could happen when you put these teams through a sudden-death bracket to determine a Final Four. One bad day or one extremely good day for an opponent can result in an upset that will shift the projection of the Final Four results. There are also a few matchups in the bracket that could mean trouble for the top four teams in the country.

So, what teams have the potential to be dark horses and cause a Final Four upset?

Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan Wolverines have one of the best young duos in the country with Syla Swords and Olivia Olson. The pair, who both made it onto the First Team All-Big 10, have led Michigan to a top-16 seed and a two-seed in their region.

This Michigan team LOVES a big moment. They brought undefeated No. 1 UConn to the brink of a loss this season, only losing by one possession. They gave Notre Dame a run for its money at last year’s NCAA tournament, and will now host the first two rounds of action this weekend. Their motivation and drive to perform in big moments make them a perfect candidate for a dark horse team, especially when you think about the region they were drawn into.

If Michigan makes it to the Elite Eight, they could face Texas, and that’s an extremely intriguing matchup. Texas relies more on defence than offence, which sometimes results in low-scoring games. With Michigan’s ability to shoot, their quickness, and the pace they set in a game, they could end up being able to overcome a team like Texas.

Oklahoma Sooners

The fact that Oklahoma was drawn into the same corner of the bracket as South Carolina could have some huge ramifications on the predicted Final Four. South Carolina has suffered three losses this season: two to Texas and one to Oklahoma. That game went to overtime, and Sooners freshman Aaliyah Chavez scored 15 points in that period to secure a huge win for her team.

Oklahoma also has the advantage in the post against South Carolina, something women’s basketball fans aren’t used to saying. OU’s Raegan Beers is averaging 15.7 points per game in less than 25 minutes per game. That advantage may be enough to cause the biggest Sweet Sixteen upset since UConn was eliminated by Ohio State a few years ago.

West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia have been upset deliverers all season long, leading them to a four-seed in their region. They beat No. 15 Duke at the beginning of the season, No. 11 Iowa State in January, No. 14 Baylor in February, and upset No. 10 TCU to win the Big-12 Tournament Championship in March. What’s one more upset to add to the list?

They drew into the corner of the bracket where they will have to beat five-seed Kentucky in round two in order to (most likely) face Texas in the Sweet Sixteen. If they do make it to the Sweet Sixteen, it will be an upset watch for sure.

WV is another team, like Texas, that plays tough defense, trying to stop their opponents’ biggest stars from going on offensive runs. This clash of styles between these two teams could make for a tough challenge.

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