General

Coin Flips Are Found to Be Statistically Flawed! Let’s Overhaul Everything!

Oct 21, 2009, 9:00 PM UTC

People who dislike the NFL’s current overtime format always lead with the glib criticism that it only comes down to who wins the coin toss. While it’s true that teams that win the toss often prevail, the claim does discount the not insignificant difficulty of having to drive the ball the length of the field and score. “But waaaahhhh! Both teams might not get the ball! Unfair!”â†µ

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â†µâ†µBut now there’s added fuel to their contrarian fire because researchers at Stanford and UC Santa Cruz have found that coin flips disproportionately favor the side of the coin that was facing up at the time that it was put in the air.â†µ

â†µâ†µâ‡¥Their findings state that coin flips will land with the same side facing up as at the start of the coin flip on at least 51 percent of the time, and perhaps as many as 55 to 60 percent of the flips.â†µâ‡¥â†µâ‡¥“The way we flip coins creates a bias, and that makes it stay more time in the position it starts in,” contributing author of the research Susan Holmes told the San Jose Mercury News.â†µâ‡¥

â†µâ†µâ†µPossessing this knowledge, team captains will surely take an extra glance at the coin in the referee’s hand before it is flipped. In fact, 49ers center Eric Heitman already told the paper that it will change the way he prepares for the coin flip.â†µ

â†µâ†µWhich means they’re going to have to scrap this totally rigged practice altogether. Or at least impose a rule where referees have to hide the coin before they flip it. Or, after a person selects their side, they flip it once to see which side will face up, then flip it again to determine possession. â†µ

â†µâ†µYou know what? Screw it, let them roshambo for the ball.â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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