Snare Scares With Today’s Trap Games

Forget Halloween: If college football fans want a little fear this year, they could stay in, turn the lights off, and focus on this week’s slate. The “trap game” concept is usually an analyst’s way of predicting dips in performance from favored teams by assuming they will play down to lesser competition -- you don’t see too many ranked teams’ tussles labeled traps -- but that’s not exactly what I see in a lot of the games on the docket today.I see minor mismatches in style, preparation, and proficiencies that, when multiplied, could spell disaster for teams picked to cruise.

Tennessee at Alabama. The Crimson Tide have had the upper hand in this rivalry of late, and haven’t lost to the Vols in Tuscaloosa since a wild five-overtime game in 2003. But Monte Kiffin is at the helm of the Tennessee defense now, and with two weeks to prepare for this game, he will make sure that ‘Bama will see something designed to thwart their powerful running game and make Greg McElroy throw. Of course, the Tide defense will likely try to force the Vols to do the same thing. But if this one’s close into the late second quarter, it will probably stay that way: Alabama has just 13 second-half points in their last two games.

Florida at Mississippi State. This one gives Gators fans chills based on location: Ron Zook’s loss in Starkville was the low point of the program this decade and got him fired, and Steve Spurrier’s last trip to Starkville with UF produced this painful video and much more. The fear this year is based on the on-field products, though. Florida hasn’t been impressive since the first quarter at Kentucky, may be down three defensive starters, and is facing an old friend turned new nemesis in Dan Mullen, who certainly knows what the Gators’ spread should look like. His Bulldogs took LSU to the wire and bothered Georgia Tech and Houston. The talent gap is more like a gulf, but if this Florida team comes out off its stride, this one will be a nail-biter.

Texas at Missouri. The ‘Horns should roll, because Mizzou has failed its two tests against ranked teams so far. But unlike the Tigers’ duel with Nebraska, this game will not be in a monsoon, and unlike their loss to Oklahoma State, this game’s in Columbia. Texas’ offense hasn’t been great of late, with five turnovers in their last two games, so the Longhorns defense has to be the sort of stout that’s conceded more than 14 points just twice this year. Blaine Gabbert can throw, though, and against a middling Texas pass defense (16 sacks and 50th in yardage allowed), he may be able to do some damage.

Oregon at Washington. Of late, the Ducks are back to being the offensively explosive, offensively attired team most know and some hate. A 118-19 aggregate score in Pac-10 play will do that. Washington, though, is about as unpredictable a team as there is: Their resume consists of: A win over USC, close losses to LSU and Notre Dame, a blowout of Idaho, a blowout loss at Stanford, a stunning comeback against Arizona and a stunning collapse against Arizona State. These Huskies are not boring, and they’re decent at home, where they get the Ducks today.

Iowa at Michigan State. Michigan State does not win impressively. But neither does Iowa. And with a defense that has staunched the bleeding in October (48 points allowed after coughing up 113 in September), the Spartans have a chance to make this game an ugly toss-up that would make the Big Ten a similar situation.

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