The BCS Chaos Theory

Boise State, despite it’s 54-9 win at Hawaii (granted, it was a win against a 2-5 team, but still, a win on the road), actually dropped from fourth to seventh in the second installment of this year’s BCS standings. As you might imagine, One Bronco Nation Under God isn’t pleased about this, and decides to write a letter to all of college football.

Dear college football,

[...] To a rational person, falling three spots doesn’t make sense. Boise State did not lose. They did not play horribly. They completed roughly 60 percent of their center-QB exchanges. They did nothing differently than any of the other ten teams around them apart from not needing a last-second field goal block to win, not winning by one score, and not beating Michigan State on the final play. You want the Broncos to make it more interesting? Well, you didn’t seem to like the Tulsa game very much, so maybe you should make up your mind.

I understand that your BCS formulas don’t account for margin of victory. But do they account for rationality? How about common sense? They most certainly accounted for my giant headache that sent me to bed at 8:30 last night.

Seriously, why? Why go to the trouble of having a BCS poll in late October if the results of that poll are heinous, impractical, and faulty? Here’s what everyone in their right mind saw happen over the weekend: The top eight teams in the country all won. Here’s what your BCS computers saw: 1111011011101110111BoiseStateFAIL1001011001.

Not cool, college football.

It goes on from there.

Benefiting the most from the Broncos moving down in the rankings is TCU, who jumped from eighth to sixth, one spot ahead of Boise State. This now means the Horned Frogs, assuming they win out (which is not an easy assumption to make, with No. 16 Utah and a game at Wyoming on the schedule), will be playing in their first ever BCS bowl. Mountain West Connection is even talking BCS National Championship for TCU, but we’re a still a ways away from that happening; plus, there are still the issues of Iowa and USC, both of which are ahead of TCU in the polls. We all know the BCS system doesn’t really “work.” But how do we fix it? MWC’s suggestion: CHAOS.

Chaos is my goal for the BCS in hope of change, and one way would be for either TCU or Boise State to make the title game, and currently TCU has the best chance because they should meet a top 15 Utah in two weeks. TCU will need help and they will get some by being able to pass the loser of the projected Alabama/Florida loser, but they also need Oregon to beat USC, Iowa to lose to Ohio State, and Texas to lose to Oklahoma State. Even if all of that happens TCU still might jump ahead to number two.

The other scenario which is more likely is to force the BCS to take two non-BCS teams, because that will take money out of the BCS conferences coffers. This is possible if Houston keeps winning and moves into the top 14 and thus must be in the mix. Now, if Utah were to beat TCU that obivously would put Utah in the top 14 and TCU would drop but but still be in the top 14. With this scenario the top 14 would have Boise State (auto-bid), Utah, TCU, and Houston from the non-BCS ranks. [...]

Again, that is a plausible long shot, but chaos is my goal.