Matt Forte Is Back! Or Is He?

Matt Forte owners rejoiced this week after seeing their star explode for 121 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Lions. That’s the Matt Forte they expected. Forte, hell yeah!

Uh, wait, hang on. There’s good news and bad news.

First, the good news. Forte is now on pace for a 1,084 rushing yard, 4 touchdown season. That’s below his 1,238 yard, 8 TD performance from last year but it’s still a decent (though not first round pick-worthy) season. Rushing touchdowns tend to come in bunches, so there’s a good chance that Forte will average more than a touchdown every four games by the time the season ends. Now that’s he’s “warmed up”, Forte should be on his way to being the running back owners expected when they built their fantasy team around him.

Now the bad news, and plenty of it. The obvious bad news is that the Bears only play the Lions once more this season and that’s in Week 17 which won’t help fantasy owners. The Bears next two games are against Atlanta and Cincy, and they also have games against Philadelphia, Baltimore, an underrated San Francisco team, and two against the mighty Vikings. Forte might chew up teams like Cleveland and St. Louis, but overall he has a tough road ahead of him.

Another point is that Forte’s stats for the first four games are completely skewed by last week -- Forte increased his season rushing total by 80% in a single game. If you had projected his stats out after three weeks, he was on pace for only 800 rushing yards. So which part of the first quarter of the season is the real Matt Forte; the first three games (against Green Bay/Pittsburgh/Seattle) or the last one against the lowly Lions?

Finally, Forte is being victimized by the increased focus on the Chicago passing game. It’s no coincidence that the drop in Forte’s production is happening at the same time that fantasy owners are learning the names of guys like Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox. Forte is on a pace to finish with 32 fewer carries than last year -- something that will drain his fantasy value no matter who he’s playing. Barring an injury to Jay Cutler (no Forte owners, that wasn’t a suggestion!), it seems unlikely that the Bears will go back to last season’s run-heavy play calling.

His next game against a solid Falcons defense will be a good test of whether or not Matt Forte is back to last season’s form or if he raised your hopes by feasting on a bad Lions team. If it’s the latter, owners might want to start thinking about what his trade value would be in their league.