Over at Advanced NFL Stats they have crunched the numbers on Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 from New England’s own 28. The conclusion: It was the correct call.
Bill Belichick’s 4th Down Decision Was Correct, According To Math
↵You can check out the arithmetic for yourself, but the win probability (WP) if the Pats go for it is .79, meaning they win the game 79% of the time in that exact situation. The WP if they punt: .70. Statistically, that’s a pretty significant difference.
↵Of course, last night ended up falling into the remaining .21 as the play fell short (at least according to the ref’s spot) and the Colts ended up scoring the game-winning TD. Equipped with this hindsight, the fans over at SBN’s Pats Pulpit are against the decision to go for it by about 60/40.
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