Three Reasons Phillies Will Win Tonight

The Good

1) Road Warriors. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road team in baseball this year. The Phillies went 48-33, with a +70 run differential away from CBP this year. The Phillies have played five games at Yankee Stadium so far this year, and have outscored the Yankees 22-15 ...

2) Rested and ready. Despite some criticism, Charlie Manuel's decision to keep his pitchers on normal rest could pay off huge. Pedro Martinez, on 5 days rest, is going up against Andy Pettitte, on 3 days rest. Martinez has always been at his best when he's on regular 4 or 5 day rest. When he gets too much rest, 6 days or more, his game suffers. Batters hit him better (a .070 jump in OPS on his career, about a .200 jump this year) and he gives up more runs (his ERA jumps about 1.00 on his career, about 3.00 this year). Martinez is in his sweet spot going on 5 days rest. On the other hand, Pettitte will be challenged on 3 days rest. For his career, Pettitte is only slightly worse on 3 days rest compared to regular rest. But, here's the rub -- he hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, when he was 34. The body works differently at 37.

3) Righty power. The Phillies right-handed hitters can demolish Pettitte. Even though Pettitte had a small reverse platoon split this year (.730 OPS for lefties, .717 for righties) and just a very small platoon split for his career (.728 OPS for righties, .711 for lefties), the Phillies righties have demolished Pettitte in the past. It's all on the small to miniscule sample size end of the spectrum, but the results have been great. Including the post-season, Jayson Werth has a .188/.188/750 line with 3 home runs in 16 plate appearances, Pedro Feliz has a .300/.462/.400 line in 13 plate appearances, Ben Francisco has a .400/.500/.400 line in 6 plate appearances, and Carlos Ruiz has a .500/.667/1.250 line in 6 plate appearances ...