General

Steelers Onside Kick to Be Latest Hotly Debated Correct Call

Dec 21, 2009, 7:52 PM UTC

Like never before, this NFL season has produced near-Talmudic analyses of scenarios surrounding unconventional playcalls seemingly every week. First, and most notoriously, there was Bill Belichick’s decision to attempt to convert a 4th and 2 from his own end of the field late against the Colts. Then there was Maurice Jones-Drew’s decision to purposefully fall on the 1-yard line rather than score a TD late against the Jets.â†µâ†µNow comes Mike Tomlin’s call to attempt an onside kick against the Packers after the Steelers had just taken a tenuous 30-28 lead with about four minutes remaining. In terms of strategy, it was sound. The Packers clearly were not expecting it, nor were they in position to recover. The execution was slightly less impressive. Though Jeff Reed put the kick where it needed to be, struggling cornerback Ike Taylor touched the ball about a half yard and a half second before he should have, giving Green Bay the ball on the Pittsburgh 39. â†µ

â†µâ†µAs viewers know, the Packers quickly scored a touchdown (with two-point conversion) to take a 36-30 advantage, only to see the Steelers respond with a winning touchdown as time expired. â†µ

â†µâ†µSome would say Tomlin was only justified by circumstance and that he took a needless risk that only by chance happened to work out in his favor. Those people, however, are not statisticians. Advanced NFL Stats, the oft-cited site for discussing the Belichick call, looked at this one as well.â†µ

â†µâ†µâ‡¥A conventional kickoff gives the Packers a 1st and 10 at their own 30 or so (28 is the average, 33 is the median). This gives the Packers a 0.46 WP, which is 0.54 WP for the Steelers. â†µâ‡¥â†µâ‡¥The onside kick is the better decision by 0.64 to 0.54 WP. These estimates are only league baselines, but they suggest it was probably a good call. What’s most interesting to me is that a failed onside kick is hardly certain death — a 0.42 WP. There was plenty of time for anything to happen — a stop, a turnover, a score. And sure enough the Steelers gave up a touchdown but came back with one of their own.â†µâ‡¥

â†µâ†µâ†µAs with the Belichick call, probability was on Tomlin’s side. It just so happened that a little luck was too.â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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