Pre-Race Predictions
The driver standings always seems to be a little skewed after the Daytona 500 because of the wrecks that usually happen on these restrictor plate tracks, but rest assured you fantasy racers the points almost always seems to sort themselves out but the end of the fifth race of the season.
With that being said I’m quite sure that all of the top 12 contenders for the Chase this season will come from four teams; Hendrick Motorsports, Richard Childress Racing, Roush-Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing. I consider these racing organizations to be in the upper-most tier of teams in NASCAR and together they have 16 drivers all vying for a chance to be in the Chase. In fact the last 9 Sprint Cup Champions and 17 of the last 19 Champions have all come from one of these organizations. Impressive to say the least.
Hendrick Motorsports has a bevy of talented drivers that include 4-time Sprint Cup Champ Jeff Gordon (24), current 3-time Champ Jimmie Johnson (48), NASCAR’s most popular driver Dale Earnhardt Jr (88), and 4-time Sprint Cup runner-up Mark Martin (5).
Richard Childress Racing has former Nationwide Series Champions Kevin Harvick (29) and Clint Bowyer (33), the yet to be proven Casey Mears (07), and the always consistent Jeff Burton (31).
Roush-Fenway has former Sprint Cup Champ Matt Kenseth (17), the young and fast learning David Ragan (6), former Nationwide Series Champions Greg Biffle (16), and Carl Edwards (99), and former rookie of the year Jamie McMurray (26) who honestly is on his last leg at Roush-Fenway if he does not perform up to the level of his teammates this year.
Joe Gibbs lost their former two-time Sprint Cup Champ Tony Stewart as he went and formed his own team this year, but Gibbs went and got racing phenom Joey Logano to take the wheel of the famed #20 Home Depot machine. Logano’s nickname is ‘Sliced Bread’ by the way because he’s supposed to be the greatest thing since. Other drivers at Gibbs include Championship contender Kyle Busch (18), and former Nationwide Champion Denny Hamlin (11).
Sometime next week I’ll break down the second and third tier teams for you, so stay tuned! Who knows, by that time there may have been another merger or two of teams as they struggle to get sponsorship dollars in these tough economic times.
In any event, I just hope that I get to see a full race this week in California and not a rained shorten one like last week. NASCAR needs to make every effort to get the full show in, or they will face harsh criticism from fans and sponsors a-like.
Auto Club Speedway in California will be a difficult one for some of the lower start-up teams as it is low banked causing more stress on the front right tire, so set-up is important because if you don’t have a good set-up you’ll wear that front right out fast and your driver will find the wall even faster. Engine durability will also be an issue for some of the lower budget teams as most engines run at about 8500 rpm each and every lap with no rest other than pit stops. That’s a lot of rpms to sustain over the course of a race.
My picks to win this week are either Jimmie Johnson (48) or Carl Edwards (99), both of these guys have the knack to get around this track and win. My long-shot pick would be Brian Vickers (83), but he’ll need a really good set-up to beat either the 48 or 99 cars that’s for sure.
