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Duke’s Sweet 16 Loss Is Right on Par

Mar 27, 2009, 2:00 PM UTC

There’s much talk down here in the Carolinas that Duke has fallen off in recent years. Certainly being disintegrated by Villanova last night isn’t going to help ease the chatter. But has Duke actually taken a turn for the worse or is it just their early ousters over the past few years clouding our memory?â†µâ†µAs Chase over at The Dagger points out, in Duke’s last six NCAA Tournaments they have been eliminated by a team with a worse seed. But is losing to a lesser seed the mark of underachievement? In those six Tournaments, Duke has made it to the Sweet 16, or further, four times. By the standards of any program in the country, that would be considered successful. But this is Duke, which takes normal expectations and puts them through the shredder. â†µ

â†µâ†µTo really examine how far the Dukies have fallen (or if they actually have at all), here is how deep they’ve made it in the NCAA Tournament over the past 20 years. On the Y-axis, one point was awarded for making the field; seven for winning it all. The static lines represent the averages of the 90s and 00s: â†µ

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â†µâ†µThe simple translation is that in the 90s, they averaged an Elite Eight run, and in the 00s, it’s been closer to a Sweet 16 average. It also shows, however, that Duke has been more consistent this decade, whereas the 90s were marked with wild swings. As for the number of titles won, in the 90s they won two National Championships, six regular season ACC crowns and two ACC Tournament titles. In the 00s, they’ve won the National Championship once to go along with four regular season titles and seven ACC Tournaments.â†µ

â†µâ†µSo, what does it all mean? Duke sucks. Sorry, scratch that. Duke isn’t quite what it was last decade. The obvious reason is recruiting; Roy Williams is doing a better job signing the superior players. But these things tend to be cyclical. I wouldn’t shed any tears for the Blue Devils just yet. When they’re back to winning National Championships, we’ll long for the days of watching them get crushed in the Sweet 16.â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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