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Are Pitch Counts Stupid? Probably.

Jun 18, 2009, 8:26 PM UTC

In modern-day baseball, pitch counts are sacrosanct. Here’s Joeâ†µPosnanski as part of an â†µexcellentâ†µconversation with Bill James on the subject: â†µâ†µâ‡¥100 pitches is the magic number. This year, going into Sunday, thereâ†µâ‡¥were 1,543 starters who went at least five innings in a game. Theirâ†µâ‡¥average pitch count: 99.2. Can you believe that?â†µâ†µâ†µThat is seriously orthodox adherence to the Church of theâ†µBig Round Number, and represents a major shift in the game over the past 20 years. Posnanski and James are of one mind on this: they thinkâ†µit’s stupid, especially with the astronomical sums being paid to premiumâ†µstarting pitchers. â†µ

â†µâ†µThough they make no bones about their opinion, they liberallyâ†µsprinkle their conversation with references to the Bad Old Days whenâ†µmanagers ground pitchers’ arms into dust and let them sprinkle away inâ†µthe wind. One of a few examples: â†µ

â†µâ†µâ‡¥On June 25, 1975, Kansas City’s Steve Busby pitched 12 inningsâ†µâ‡¥in a game at California, winning the game 6-2 when the Royals scoredâ†µâ‡¥four in the 12th. Busby was 25 years old at the time. His career recordâ†µâ‡¥before that game was 52-35, and he had thrown two no-hitters. His careerâ†µâ‡¥record after that game was 18-19.â†µâ†µ

â†µNote the date. The 1970s were real and actual Bad Old Days. Accordingâ†µto thisâ†µHardball Times article, 1970's pitchers were the most overworked inâ†µthe modern history of the game:â†µ

â†µâ†µâ‡¥The workloads handled by top pitchers in the 1970s (well over 5,000â†µâ‡¥pitches) were not typical of the second half of the 20th century.â†µâ†µâ†µBut despite this, the workhorses of the era didn’t appear to getâ†µinjured at a greater rate than modern pitchers, who are 10% off theâ†µpace of the relatively stable pitch counts of the 40s, 50s, and 60s.â†µHardball Times cites James’ own research to make this assertion:â†µ

â†µâ†µâ‡¥The extreme focus on counting pitches in the modern era has not onlyâ†µâ‡¥meaningfully reduced the proportion of pitching that is performed byâ†µâ‡¥every team’s best pitchers -- thus increasing the proportion pitched byâ†µâ‡¥the worst -- it has done so while producing no noticeableâ†µâ‡¥reduction in pitching injuries.â†µâ†µâ†µThat is a powerful argument. While no one is asserting that managersâ†µgo back to the era when no one cared at all, there’s a lot of evidenceâ†µthe pendulum has swung too far the other way. Extending your bestâ†µpitchers’ pitch counts could be the new Moneyball now that theâ†µfocus on OBP, walks, WHIP and K/BB -- ie, not making outs -- has enteredâ†µthe canon of baseball’s generally accepted best practices. â†µ

â†µâ†µIf you’re looking for a test case, look to the Rangers. Theâ†µJames-Posnanski conversation was spurred by Nolan Ryan -- now a member ofâ†µthe Rangers’ front office -- and his quixotic quest to make Rangersâ†µpitchers, well, more like him. Ryan threw huge numbers of pitches overâ†µthe course of his endless career, topping out in 1974 when he set theâ†µMLB record for strikeouts with 383. It’s estimated Ryan averaged 134â†µpitches per start that year. Kevin Millwood isn’t going to touch that,â†µbut if he ends up with a lot of innings over the next couple years andâ†µthe Rangers win a few more games than you might expect, well ... thereâ†µyouâ†µgo.â†µ

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