In Week 1, Dance with the Girl You Brought

As we approach the first full slate of NFL action, fantasy owners are looking at their rosters with anticipation and wonderment, surely saying to themselves, “I have assembled you together to create the greatest fantasy team to ever play a pretend game.”

We have match-ups to break down, offseasons to interpret, and expectations to spell out. But often at this time every year, fantasy owners get too hung up on analyzing the landscape of the league as it pertains to their lineup. That is why my first Start/Sit column begins with this very basic, obvious piece of advice:

Start of the Week:

Whomever you drafted first or paid the most for in your draft is the Start of the Week. Let’s not get too cute. Every single fantasy team out there has a Start of the Week in Week 1 as far as I’m concerned. In an auction draft, you spent the highest amount of money on one guy. In a traditional snake draft, you made one guy your 1st round draft pick. This is your stud. If you can’t start this guy in Week 1 because of a match-up issue, or because of weather, or because of a questionable offseason, you made a foolish investment. Anything can happen after the first whistle blows on Sunday. You have to believe that the guy you made your top priority in the draft is going to be the guy that turns in the best performance of the first week. For that matter, the top 5 players or so on your roster going into Week 1 are no-brainers.

Well that was easy. But just so SBNation doesn’t feel like they wasted the pesos they paid me, let’s focus on some middle-tier players that I think are good starts this week. If you have these guys on your roster, you may very well be deciding whether or not to give them a shot in the topsy-turvy world of Week 1. These are gamble picks to be certain, but the difference between winning and losing each week in fantasy comes down to that one mystery guy who either blows up on your bench or in your starting lineup.

PUT ME IN COACH!

Shaun Hill, QB SF - I would wager most teams drafted Hill as a backup to their stud quarterback, but if you went bargain hunting for QB’s in the middle to late rounds of the draft, and Hill is in your rotation, start him. His opponent, the Cardinals, allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league last year. If Frank Gore and Glen Coffee can keep the ground game churning for the 49ers, Hill will find some openings in the secondary. Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle and Vernon Davis should be able to get open, and with the confidence that Singletary has placed in him, Hill will take some chances.

Reggie Bush, RB NO - How did the former Heisman winner and top draft pick turn into a risky fantasy starter? Well, most likely because it appears more and more likely that parts of his body are made completely out of glass. My colleague Chet would have you tap Mike Bell as the Saint who will benefit most from Pierre Thomas’ absence. I am of the opinion that Bush is going to not only get the touches he would have gotten with Thomas on the field, but he will share with Bell the touches that Thomas would have had. His fantasy output should be increased in this situation, and going against Detroit doesn’t hurt either.

Malcolm Kelly, WR WAS - Oh God...here I go naming a Redskin in my Start ‘em/Sit ‘em piece. You must be calling me a moron even as you read these words, to which my reply is, “Shuh your mouth. Shuh-Shuh your mouth...shuh your mouth.” (Name the movie.) He is going to start this game opposite Santana Moss. The Giants’ defense is going to have to pay attention to Moss and Chris Cooley and who’s kidding who--they simply aren’t afraid of Kelly beating them. Jason Campbell and Jim Zorn are going to push the ball to Kelly if for no better reason than to make sure teams know they won’t throw it to Cooley and Moss exclusively. We’ll rightfully call Kelly our Gamble of the Week. Bet on him to have a surprisingly solid fantasy week.

Jermichael Finley, TE GB - No, I am not drunk. Listen, if you drafted Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley or Jason Witten, you don’t care about this start pick. Move along. For the rest of us, we know that every year a guy comes out of obscurity to crush it at the tight end position. This year I am naming Finley as that guy. If Kelly was our Gamble of the Week, then we’ll call Finley our Shot in the Dark of the Week. But don’t be scurrrrrrrred. This guy can play and Aaron Rodgers is going to get more and more comfortable with him as the weeks progress.

GRAB SOME PINE!

Eli Manning QB, NYG - Super Bowl schmuper bowl. The Giants this year will be leaning on their running game. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will be relied upon to move the chains. Eli will escape the dreaded “Game Manager” label, but until he figures out who he can rely on regularly in his receiving corps, he is not a great starting option. The Redskins have a stingy defense as it is, and they boast a quality pass defense. Eli is going to have to prove it before you count on him in the fantasy world.

Chris Johnson, RB TEN - GENIUS! How did I ever know? AAAARRRGGGGHHHH!!! Yeah, I started him last night. What was I thinking? Everything about this game had bust written all over it: in Pittsburgh, against a stout rushing defense, on opening night. Dear Jebus!

Terrell Owens WR, BUF - Many are of the mindset that T.O. is a guy you “must start” if you own him. I don’t buy that...yet. The Buffalo offense looked absolutely depressing this preseason, ultimately leading to the firing of yet another offensive coordinator. On top of that, I sincerely doubt that the Patriots are going to allow Terrell to run free in their secondary. The one thing going for T.O. is that this game is on national TV, and he always does something for the cameras on national TV. My money is on a nationally televised sideline argument though. Trent Edwards is going to force him the ball and it is going to end badly.

Kellen Winslow, TE, TB - His name screams start. His game screams bench right now. After all, he only caught one pass this preseason for 5 yards. The Tampa Bay offense is like...ummmm...how to put this delicately...a turd wrapped in a dirty tissue stuffed inside a bag of vomit. You might consider playing some wait-and-see with this team before putting any Buccaneers in your starting lineup.

Well, good luck to all of you. I hope you drafted well. Next week, we will start facing the reality of a potentially crappy roster, and players worth starting sooner rather than later in leagues that use cumulative scoring.