Week 3 Start/Sit: Target Practice

The difficulty in trying to analyze or assess fantasy production and value this early in the season is there simply isn’t enough data to accurately gauge how a player might perform against new defenses, with new offensive lines. Much can change over on off-season, and as we’ve seen through two weeks of actual NFL games, there have been many surprises which have in turn left desperate fantasy owners trying to pick up the pieces of teams they drafted to be dominating beasts. Who might have guessed that first round picks like Steve Slaton and Matt Forte wouldn’t even be in the top 40 at their position? Or that Randy Moss would not yet have found the endzone? Or that Tom Brady would be playing more like Brady Quinn?

Last week I took a look at eight running backs and made predictions on whether to start or sit them. I got 6 of 8 correct. The two I got wrong were starting Matt Forte, (though he didn’t have a terrible day), and sitting Cedric Benson (who’d have guessed Green Bay’s defense would fall apart last week?).

This week I want to take a look at wide receivers who are under or over producing from expectations and how they might fare in week three. While two weeks isn’t a lot of time to see patterns, one pattern we can look at is the number of targets the receiver is getting. Opportunity means potential production.

Randy Moss, WR, NWE - Moss was a late first round or early second round draft pick in most leagues, and he’s currently the 27th fantasy producer at his position. In 2007, when his QB Tom Brady was healthy, Moss hauled in 23 touchdowns. This season he’s on track for, zero. Two games with no TD celebrations. However, Moss does have 165 receiving yards and 16 receptions. More important, he’s been targeted 24 times, an average of 12 a game. That’s third best in the league. As Brady gets his mojo back Moss will score. This week his team faces the Atlanta Falcons who have been mediocre against the pass, but they’ve only faced Chad Pennington and Jake Delhomme. START Moss this week, and he will score...perhaps twice.

Roddy White, WR, ATL - Roddy is off to a slow start. He has yet to get to 100 total receiving yards, and is currently 35th at his position in fantasy scoring. Not what you expected from a 3rd or 4th round pick. He’s had only 11 receptions, but he’s been targeted 20 times. This week he faces a strong pass defense in the Patriots. Logic would suggest another rough day for White, but the Pats defense has been all sorts of banged up. I think Roddy could have a solid day, and I’d START him.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - Manningham is this week’s hot waiver wire pick up, and he’s also the top producing fantasy WR through two games. Has Eli Manning found his Plaxico replacement? Too early to tell. The question is, should you jump on this band wagon, when Eli still has Domenik Hixon, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and Ramses Barden to throw to? If you have a bench spot, he’s worth picking up, but don’t bet the farm just yet. He’s received extra playing time because of injury, and he didn’t even start game one (though he did score in that game). That said, Mario is a must START this week against a woeful Tampa Bay defense. He’s had 17 targets and 13 receptions, the majority of which came in week two.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Who’d have guessed after two weeks that New York Giants Steve Smith would be ranked number five, and Carolina’s stud would be 36th? Smith had a terrible opening week that had everything to do with his quarterback, Jake Delhomme, and nothing to do with his own play. Last week he got back on track, eclipsing the 100 yard mark, but he’s yet to score. He’s only had 11 receptions in two games, but he’s been the most targeted wide-out so far. The Panthers have thrown to him 28 times. Of course Delhomme had five interceptions in week one alone. You do the math. This week Smith faces the Cowboys who are third worst against the pass, and second worst in yards allowed to receivers. START Smith this week.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC - Bowe plays for an offensively challenged team, but he’s their number one offensive weapon now that Tony Gonzalez is gone. He’s scored a touchdown each week so far. My recommendation is you sell him now while his value is high. He’s only been targeted 10 times and hasn’t even reached 100 yards. If he’s the team’s best threat, those numbers don’t add up. The Chief’s number four receiver, who only played last week had nine targets. Matt Cassel isn’t a big play QB, and Bowe is a big play receiver. This week the Chiefs face the stout Philadelphia Eagles secondary. I’d SIT Bowe this week if you have other options, especially in PPR leagues.

Laurent Robinson, WR, STL - Donnie Avery was supposed to be the Rams top WR this year, but Falcons cast off Robinson is the one getting all the love, and targets; 19 times for 11 receptions. He’s the 15th ranked fantasy producer at WR through two weeks. This week Robinson gets to face a Green Bay Packers secondary ranked 28th against the pass. They’ve already surrendered four TDs to wide receivers. So play the hot hand this week and START Laurent.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN - Everyone seems to be high on this rookie for the Vikes, and why not? he has a touchdown each game so far. However, the Vikes aren’t passing much, despite Favre’s presence, and opportunities are limited. Harvin only has nine targets, eight receptions and 77 yards. In a PPR league he’s causing blood loss. He won’t score every week and it’s highly unlikely he’ll make it three in a row. SIT the kid against the 49ers.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - 85 seems to be back in a big way. He scored last week and has been his team’s top receiver. He’s ranked 8th in fantasy points. However, this week he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers, who even without DB Troy Polamalu are a detriment to receivers. The Steelers have not lost in Cincy with Big Ben under center. My best guess is Ocho catches five to six balls for 60-70 yards and no score. Not a fantasy boon by any measure. SIT him against the Steel Curtain.

Generally, I always recommend starting your top picks, regardless of match-ups, barring injury, of course. It is obvious that you’ll always play guys like Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees. I try to save this list for guys who are not always obvious starts.

Last night I spent about six hours working on start/sit for every game, read it here.

Written by Rustyn Rose