Untitled Update

Sometimes as a fan of your favorite team, you will find yourself begging the TV to make the conservative, safe decision. But as a fantasy owner, there is no 4th down too risky to go for, no deep bomb not worth throwing, and no superfluous power sweeps. The decision-maker is of course the head coach on the sidelines, so when you have a player 5 yards short of a bonus in the 4th quarter, these are the coaches you want to be making that call.

Bill Belichick: As a Redskins fan, I can remember being down 38-0 in the 4th quarter and Belichick left Tom Brady in for an 88 yard drive that included a 4th and 1 conversion. Later, up 45-0, they went for it on 4th and 2 and got into the end zone to go up 52-0. In addition to letting his quarterback air it out at will, he also uncorks at least one or two waiver wire gems during the course of the season. If you read that they are going to start a relative unknown at running back on Sunday, pick that guy up. This season, I expect that player to be BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I don’t expect him to be drafted in many leagues so when he gets his chance he will be available. Belichick will pound him all game long. His no-mercy style is exactly what you want as a fantasy owner.

Sean Payton: I love his offense. What makes him a good coach for all you fantasy owners out there is that he has created a system where any one of 5, 6, even 7 guys can get points. He has established Drew Brees as an extension of himself on the field--it goes without saying that Drew Brees is a fantasy stud. But Brees manufactures fantasy studs himself. Last year Lance Moore came on as a huge waiver wire pickup. Robert Meachem had a big game. Payton’s offensive style made it possible for a guy like Pierre Thomas to make the most of his opportunity last season. Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush will of course all get drafted. But at some point this season, an injury will force the Saints to put a guy like Meachem or Adrian Arrington in and when they do, trust that Sean Payton/Drew Brees will find them for big plays.

Todd Haley: I am tempted to give this slot to Ken Whisenhunt, but something about the way that Cardinal offense ran last season with Haley versus the way it looks right now without the Haley/Warner tandem gives me pause. You can claim that any offensive coordinator with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Kurt Warner will look pretty damn good. But in the fantasy world, being able to count on a team to pass not just when they are down, but at any and all points in the game is pretty huge. It explains how a guy like Steve Breaston goes from 8 catches in 2007 for less than a 100 yds to 77 catches in 2008 for over 1,000 yards--as a #3 receiver. And it is what will add valuable receptions to a running back’s stat line. A guy like Jamaal Charles is going to be hard to keep off the field under Haley because of his explosiveness in the flat. Larry Johnson will eat most of the carries, but in the middle of the field (between the 40’s), Jamaal Charles will see the kind of action that gives fantasy owners a reason to start him. By that of course, I refer to the perennially undervalued “yards-per-touch” category. Todd Haley has shown an ability to maximize yards before and after the catch for his players. Kansas City won’t blow anyone’s skirt up this year, but fantasy owners shouldn’t overlook some of their skill players as reliable starting options throughout the season.

Mike McCarthy: I have struggled to get over his role in the whole Brett Favre saga. To be fair, I am not a Green Bay fan, so my perspective is more from a fan of getting to watch #4 play, as well as thoroughly enjoying the drama. If I were a Green Bay fan, my opinion would almost certainly be different. Back to the point: unlike some of the reasons that the above coaches are listed, I put down McCarthy because he strikes me as the kind of coach that is most likely to get something extra out of a guy. Having made a point to watch as many Packers’ games as I could the last few years, his presence on the sideline since he joined that team has been rather magical. He owns the best coaching start in Packers’ history--besting Vince Lombardi--and shares the best won-loss ratio to start the first 25 games of a career with Joe Gibbs. Whatever you think of the kind of player Aaron Rodgers is or could/should be, he is killing it in The League. At his disposal this year are guys that you should be prepared to give a look to during the season. Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Brandon Jackson are all guys who will either be late round selections or waiver wire pickups. All are capable of stepping into Mike McCarthy’s system and giving you some fantasy love for one or more games.

Rex Ryan: This guy strikes me as certifiable. The question we will wait to get answered is if he is a certifiable genius of if he is certifiably insane. I wanted to give a nod to a defensive-minded coach and in Ryan, we have a guy who could insert his personality into all the phases of the Jets’ team. First, he is turning loose a rookie QB, which takes a little guts (if you think the race was even close between Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens), and he is also potentially going to unleash a certain running back on the league that should be a top priority for any fantasy owner who has not drafted yet: Leon Washington. The uncertainty of how a rookie quarterback will perform is kind of the draw here for me. I get the impression Ryan is going to want to see some fireworks. He will lean on Leon Washington to rack up yards-per-touch (please pay attention to that stat from here on out) and I think he will let his young gunner air it out to some degree. The uncertainty of the new regime, the rookie quarterback and the unproven wide receiver core should result in value draft picks in all fantasy leagues, as well as the mid-season manifestation of surprise waiver wire options.