Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and “normalizes” the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher’s future ERA</strong>
Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some Bounce Back Candidates for 2010
With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | E-F | xFIP | E-X |
| Javier Vazquez | 9.77 | 1.81 | 5.41 | 0.297 | 76.60% | 2.87 | 0.1 | 2.82 | 0.05 |
| Tim Lincecum | 10.4 | 2.72 | 3.84 | 0.297 | 75.90% | 2.48 | 0.13 | 2.87 | -0.4 |
| Roy Halladay | 7.83 | 1.32 | 5.94 | 0.313 | 79.00% | 2.79 | -0.3 | 3.05 | -0.3 |
| Dan Haren | 8.75 | 1.49 | 5.87 | 0.28 | 77.00% | 3.14 | -0.1 | 3.08 | 0.06 |
| Jon Lester | 9.96 | 2.83 | 3.52 | 0.323 | 76.90% | 3.41 | 0.26 | 3.13 | 0.28 |
| Zack Greinke | 9.5 | 2 | 4.75 | 0.313 | 79.30% | 2.16 | -0.2 | 3.15 | -1 |
| Justin Verlander | 10.1 | 2.36 | 4.27 | 0.328 | 72.70% | 3.45 | 0.65 | 3.26 | 0.19 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 9.49 | 2.14 | 4.43 | 0.336 | 61.00% | 5.06 | 1.71 | 3.28 | 1.78 |
| Josh Beckett | 8.43 | 2.33 | 3.62 | 0.302 | 71.60% | 3.86 | 0.23 | 3.35 | 0.51 |
| Adam Wainwright | 8.19 | 2.55 | 3.21 | 0.309 | 80.40% | 2.63 | -0.5 | 3.36 | -0.7 |
Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | xFIP | E-X |
| Ricky Nolasco | 9.49 | 2.14 | 4.43 | 0.336 | 61.00% | 5.06 | 3.28 | 1.78 |
| Carl Pavano | 6.64 | 1.76 | 3.77 | 0.335 | 66.10% | 5.1 | 3.96 | 1.14 |
| Livan Hernandez | 5 | 3.28 | 1.52 | 0.326 | 67.30% | 5.44 | 4.78 | 0.66 |
| Cole Hamels | 7.81 | 2 | 3.91 | 0.325 | 72.10% | 4.32 | 3.69 | 0.63 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | 9.39 | 4.04 | 2.33 | 0.316 | 71.60% | 4.38 | 3.76 | 0.62 |
| Jason Hammel | 6.78 | 2.14 | 3.17 | 0.337 | 69.50% | 4.33 | 3.81 | 0.52 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 5.22 | 3.22 | 1.62 | 0.321 | 66.70% | 5.03 | 4.52 | 0.51 |
| Josh Beckett | 8.43 | 2.33 | 3.62 | 0.302 | 71.60% | 3.86 | 3.35 | 0.51 |
| Derek Lowe | 5.13 | 2.91 | 1.76 | 0.33 | 68.70% | 4.67 | 4.19 | 0.48 |
| Brett Anderson | 7.7 | 2.31 | 3.33 | 0.317 | 67.00% | 4.06 | 3.61 | 0.45 |
You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the pitcher's ERA and his xFIP. Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010 based on his xFIP of 3.28 in 2009.
I like Cole Hamels to bounce back after a mediocre, for him, season in 2009. I heard an interview with Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. earlier this week on Baseball This Morning on XM 175, and he stated that Hamels didn’t pick up a baseball until right before spring training 2009, leading to some minor injuries.
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