Mexican Primera Preview, October 1-3: America Looks To Build On Santos Win At Cruz Azul
Estudiantes Tecos vs. Jaguares
Friday, 9pm ET TV: Galavision
Last week, Tecos were the victims of Pachuca’s rebound performance, losing 3-1 on the road. They sit in last place in Group 1 and face another formidable opponent this week. Jaguares are on a fantastic run and come into their match against Tecos as favorites. They defeated fellow surprise surgers San Luis last week 2-1. The biggest story for them is the return of target man Jackson Martinez who was injured to start the season. Jackson, along with Danilinho and the red hot Carlos Ochoa forms a formidable attacking force. If they can find a way to get all three of those players on the field in a way that makes sense tactically, they will be very difficult to stop. I like them to put some goals up on Tecos and win 2-0.
Monterrey vs. Necaxa
Saturday, 8 pm TV: Telemundo
Necaxa will come into their match against Monterrey full of confidence after knocking off Cruz Azul last week. They put in an extremely impressive performance, defeating the Group 3 leaders 2-1 at home. Striker Dario Gandin has been in great form since arriving from Indipendiente (who are struggling mightily without him, by the way). Regardless of their momentum, they will have their hands full in a road game against Monterrey. They surprisingly drew 0-0 against Quaretaro last week, but this was more a product of bad luck and complacency than any real deficiencies. Monterrey are considerably more talented than Necaxa and will be looking to put on a show for the home fans. I’ll predict a 3-1 Monterrey win.
San Luis vs. Tigres
Saturday, 8pm TV: Telefutura (tape delay)
Tigres are sitting on third place in Group 1 and on 12 points overall, currently in the 8th and final Liguilla spot. They will be motivated to solidify their position against a tough San Luis team who currently has momentum against them. After a hot start, San Luis lost to Jaguares last week and might finally be coming back down to earth. Bastista and Victor are the two men Tigres will need to provide the finishing touches on attacks for them to get a win, and I think those two players will achieve just that. 2-1 to Tigres.
Santos vs. Toluca
Saturday, 8 pm TV: Telefutura
I am very, very, very eagerly anticipating this match. Santos and Toluca are two of the top four teams in the league, met last year in the final of the Bicentenario, and are loaded with attacking talent. If you're going to watch one game in the Mexican Primera this week, this should be it, even with two classicos taking place elsewhere. Despite their age, Zinha and Hector Mancilla continue to entertain. Morelia played well against Toluca last week, but Zinha and Mancilla dismantled them against the run of play as they won 2-1. They are absolutely on fire and will provide a stiff test to big center back Felipe Baloy and the Santos defense. Santos went down to America 3-2 last week, but losing by one goal at Estadio Azteca is nothing to be ashamed of. Superstars Cristian Benitez and Fernando Arce continued their fantastic form, contributing a goal each. Quite frankly, I expect goals, goals, and more goals in this one. Both teams could very likely play an open game, throwing caution to the wind. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the home team. I think they'll prevail 3-2 in an absolute thriller.
Atlante vs. Pachuca
Saturday, 10 pm TV: Telemundo
Two of Mexico's biggest underachievers put up impressive results last week as Atlante drew Pumas 2-2 on the road and Pachuca defeated Tecos 3-1. Three of the four talented, yet icy cold strikers for Pachuca finally got on the board, as Edgar Benitez, Dario Cvitanich, and Hercules Gomez all got on the board. None of these players is lacking in ability, they have all just been lacking in supply in confidence. Last week, both of those problems appeared to be fixed. Despite Atlante's recent upturn in form, they will struggle to get a result if Pachuca's strikers are firing on all cylinders. They have a hot striker of their own, though, as Johan Fano is on an absolute tear. In their last two games, a draw against Pumas and a win over Morelia, Fano has found four points for his team almost by himself. I don't think Pachuca's defense can keep him at bay, but Atlante's defense is even worse. 2-1 to the Tuzos.
Puebla vs. Quaretaro
Sunday, 1pm TV: Azteca America, FSE
Puebla lost to Atlas. Due to this, they are almost certainly a massive waste of time to write about extensively. Atlas had been absolutely dire all season before defeating Puebla and their fans will see the result as absolutely inexcusable. After a very good start, Puebla are in absolute free-fall mode. Quaretaro are the league’s most unpredictable team, so they very well could be the team that suffers Puebla’s improbable bounce back. However, based on Puebla’s recent form, I can’t responsibly make that prediction. I expect good performances from striker Sergio Blanco and defender Raul Mendoza. 2-0 to Quaretaro.
Pumas vs. Morelia
Saturday, 1 pm TV: Telemundo
These two talented teams both made the Liguilla without too much fuss last year, but both are wildly underachieving so far this season. Morelia’s loss to Toluca dropped them to the bottom of a crazy Group 3, but Pumas are still only outside of the Liguilla on goal differential, despite their struggles. During the Bicentenario, Pumas’ defense was impregnable. Now, they’re tied for second to last in goals allowed. How can a team with Dario Veron and Marco Palacios have such a porous defense? It’s truly inexplicable. Morelia’s loss against Toluca last week was just the latest in a line of four consecutive poor results. Is there any way back for them at this point? Unless Miguel Sabah puts the team on his back, signs point to no. I like Pumas to get at least a decent result. A 2-1 win seems probable and a draw wouldn’t surprise me.
Atlas vs. Chivas Guadalajara
Sunday, 5:30 pm TV: Telemundo
One of two Sunday classicos is the Guadalajara derby between Atlas and Chivas. Atlas have been awful this year, but you can never count anyone out in a classico and Atlas did win 1-0 last week against Puebla. That goal was only their fifth of the season, but they're fortunate to be coming up against a Chivas team that is also struggling to find the back of the net. The goal scoring of Javier Hernandez has not been replaced, and despite the talent of Chivas's strikers, it doesn't look like it will be anytime soon. Unfortunately, I think that this one could turn out to be rather dull for a classico. Tempers will be flaring and the play will be intense, but I feel like both teams might lack the quality needed to finish chances. A 0-0 draw shouldn't surprise anyone.
Cruz Azul vs. Club America
Sunday, 5:30 pm TV: Azteca America, ESPN Deportes
Ahh, now this is a proper classico! Cruz Azul and Club America are actually in solid form and both look like locks for the Liguilla this season. Cruz Azul lost to Necaxa last week, but it was a road game against a tough team and only their second poor performance of the season. It was quite possible that they were affected by the combination of a mid-week CONCACAF Champions League game and looking ahead to their match up against America. After America’s great performance against Santos last week, Cruz Azul better have all the kinks worked out. They’re in for a stiff test, especially since Vicente Vuoso has just started to get red hot. The striker will be tough for Cruz Azul to stop, especially since their back line has been their biggest deficiency so far this season. They have weapons of their own, though, and America will have plenty of trouble containing Chaco Gimenez and Javier Orozco. Unlike the Guadalajara derby, this one should have some scoring. I would guess that something like a 2-2 draw is on the cards.
