USSFD2 Playoffs, Semifinals Preview and Picks: Railhawks vs. Impact; Whitecaps vs. Islanders
#2 Carolina Railhawks (1st NASL Conference, 13-9-8) v. #6 Montreal Impact (3rd NASL Conference, 12-11-7)
Carolina had a surprising amount of trouble dispatching the lowly NSC Minnesota Stars until, with just over half an hour left in the second leg, they burst upon a Minnesota team down to 10 men to the tune of four goals. The 4-0 aggregate victory, as a result, looks better than Carolina really deserves, and might raise hopes that were all but dashed when it looked for so long like Minnesota might somehow get the Railhawks to a penalty shootout. Montreal, meanwhile, positively thrashed Austin in a series that positively embarrassed the championship-favorite Aztex, not merely overcoming seemingly powerful Austin but doing so with surprising ease.
On form, Montreal is the clear favourite. Carolina grabbed the second seed by virtue of a first-place showing in the NASL Conference but nobody was ever really convinced by the Railhawks: a team of decent offensive depth but no stars and surprisingly vulnerable defensively. Montreal’s attackers ran riot over Austin, with not merely leading scorer Ali Gerba but lesser lights such as 37-year-old Eduardo Sebrango combining to ruthlessly destroy Austin’s championship hopes. Carolina isn’t nearly as good as Austin. Don’t be fooled by their records: Montreal should win this series and going away. The only question for the Impact is the health of starting goalkeeper Matt Jordan, who left the last game against Austin with a groin injury. By all accounts, however, he is fully recovered. Carolina 1 - 4 Montreal.
#5 Vancouver Whitecaps (2nd NASL Conference, 10-5-15) v. #8 Puerto Rico Islanders (5th USL Conference, 9-11-10)
Puerto Rico’s victory over league-leading Rochester was the major surprise of the first round. Taking advantage of the strongest home-field advantage in North America, Puerto Rico rolled over Rochester 2-0 in the first leg before tenaciously clinging to a 2-1 loss and a 3-2 aggregate victory back in New York. The Islanders are a veteran crew and a savvy team used to winning both in the division and in the CONCACAF Champions League: their record is poor but the Rhinos took them too lightly and suffered as a result. Vancouver, meanwhile, fought a pitched battle against arch-rivals Portland that just ended their way with a 2-1 aggregate result: until the last minute of the last leg, Portland always looked like they had a chance of taking the series.
Unsurprisingly, it will be the first leg in Puerto Rico that will determine the winner. Vancouver’s road form has been fairly good and they allow very few goals, but playing in Puerto Rico is a different animal altogether. If their defense, the best in the league, can get them out with a draw, Vancouver will be in control of the series. But if they fall into the same trap Rochester did and come out too lightly or succumb to the conditions, Puerto Rico may spring another upset. I have the winner being Vancouver, but it could swing either way at the drop of a hat. Vancouver 2 - 1 Puerto Rico.
