In his weekly fantasy chat over at ESPN, Eric Karabell was asked if Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson could hit 40 HRs in Yankee stadium. I was expected a big NO, but Karabell responded with a "Its possible". With that, I decided to take a closer look at Granderson.
A Closer Look: Yankee Outfielder Curtis Granderson
Last year, Granderson increased his HR total from 22 to 30, with his BBs staying flat going from 71 to 72, but we saw a big increase in his Ks from 111 to 141. Granderson’s BA also took a dip from .280 in 2008 to .249 in 2009. Even with this increase in HRs, his SLG dropped from .494 to .453, as his doubles dropped slightly from 26 to 23, and triples dropped from 13 to 8 in 2009.
Taking a look at his balls in play, Granderson saw some positives here. His LD% increased from 19% to 21%, his GB% dropped dramatically from 40% to 30%, and his FB% increased from 41% to 49%. All pretty positive moves, but I am not sure he can maintain the low GB% when his career average is 36.3%. With his increase in HRs, we did not see a huge increase in his HR/FB% as it increased only slightly from 12.3 % to 12.6%.
With all that said, the question remains, was 2009 HR increase a trend or just a one year aberration? Based on what I have presented here, I would bet no. But he is moving from Detroit's lineup to a Yankee lineup that is solid up and down. Well, it was last year, not so sure in 2010 with Randy Winn playing LF. But the new Yankee stadium is a hitter's heaven, a 1998 Coor's Field, if you will. So it is entirely possible , Granderson can hit 30 HRs again.
But to hit 40 HRs, he will have to maintain his FB%, and increase his HR/FB%. That is not something I would count on in 2010.
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