Alfonso Soriano is not the same player he was back in 2006 when he belted 46 HRs and stole 41 bases. His HR/RBI/BA totals over the last four seasons have been trending lower: 46/95/.277, 33/70/.299, 29/75/.280, and 20/55.241 last year, but I think he is a bit of a sleeper in 2010. Here’s why:
Fantasy Baseball: Will Alfonso Soriano Have A Bounce-Back Year In 2010?
-He went 20-55-9-.241 in 2009, but his BABIP was a .279, the lowest of his career. His career BABIP is .306 so his BA should improve in 2010.
-He still hit a fly ball 48% of his ABs in 2009, but his HR/FB rate was only 11.5%, the lowest of his career. His career HR/FB% is 15.3%, so I could see him hit close to 30 bombs in 2009.
-Manager Lou Piniella has decided to drop Soriano down to the 6th spot in the lineup, and thinks he can hit 30 HRs this season. In his career, Soriano only has 193 ABs batting in the 6th spot in the lineup, with a .271-.311-.459 slash line. Not too conclusive, but Soriano should hit with more runners in scoring position than he has in quite a long time.
-Bill James agrees with me as he projects Soriano to go 30-77-85-15-.263-.320-.487 in 2010.
-Baseball HQs Ron Shandler also thinks his power returns in 2010, yet he is not wildly optimistic as he projects him to hit 26 HRs.
Soriano’s ADP has dropped drastically over the last few years, and for good reason. But he could provide for some good value if selected after the 7-8th rounds in mixed league drafts. In auction leagues, I can’t see him going for more than $20 this year. I would bid an extra dollar for anything under $20.
But, keep in mind Soriano is an injury risk, and he is coming off offseason knee surgery. I am curious if he will get back to the 20 SB level in 2010.
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