General

The Big East is Loaded; Who Won’t Make the Field?

Mar 2, 2010, 7:43 PM UTC

Syracuse could be the top overall seed of the NCAA Tournament. Villanova and West Virginia have already clinched spots in the Big East quarterfinals and should be 1-3 seeds in the NCAAs depending on how they fare in the conference tournament. Sporting News’ Ryan Fagan has Marquette and Louisville on the 9-seed line and Connecticut on the 12-seed line, giving the Big East eight teams. He has Notre Dame and Cincinnati on his bubble.â†µâ†µESPN’s Joe Lunardi has eight for the Big East as well, giving the conference a team on each of the first four lines, before giving Louisville an 8-seed, Marquette an 11-seed and Connecticut a 12-seed. Lundardi has Notre Dame as his first team out and both Cincinnati and Seton hall in his “next four out” meaning that not only would those teams need to make a deep run into the Big East tournament, but they’d need some help from other conferences as well. And then there’s USF, who actually has a higher RPI and strength of schedule than Notre Dame.â†µ

â†µâ†µRight now, Georgetown is the 7-seed in the 16-team Big East tournament with Cincinnati left to play. Notre Dame, who sits one spot below, plays UConn on Wednesday and Marquette to finish the season. If the Irish win those games, they’d likely swap spots with UConn, putting the Huskies back on the bubble. Louisville, just ahead of Georgetown, finishes the regular season with Marquette and Syracuse, meaning this late-season swoon for Georgetown may not even hurt them in the conference standings.â†µ

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â†µBut if Georgetown loses to Cincinnati, they'd be 19-10, 9-9 heading into the conference tournament. The 7-seed plays the winner of the 10-seed and the 15-seed, which right now would be the winner of Seton Hall and Providence. In case you were wondering, Georgetown beat both those teams this year. It could, however, end up being Rutgers, which just beat the Hoyas on Valentine's Day, or USF, who beat them on Feb. 3 in Washington, D.C.â†µ

â†µâ†µSo let’s say, for the sake of this – and I know Georgetown is getting in, but indulge me for one more minute – that the Hoyas lose to Cincinnati, then lose to Seton Hall in their first Big East Tournament game. Let’s also say that Notre Dame beats UConn, but the Huskies go on a run to the Big East semifinals or finals. The win against UConn would give the Irish victories over Pittsburgh, Georgetown and UConn heading into the regular-season finale at Marquette. A win at the Bradley Center, or one or two in New York, and the Irish would be in. â†µ

â†µâ†µSo, with that logic, the Big East would have Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Marquette and Louisville as the top six seeds in the Big East tournament and all-but locks for the NCAAs. Add in Notre Dame’s late-season success, including the win over the Hoyas, and Georgetown is potentially a bad loss and a UConn run away from being on an enormous bubble if you believe the Big East can’t get more than eight teams. â†µ

â†µâ†µA few upsets in conference tournaments around the mid-majors, or a run by someone outside the top five in the SEC, and the Big East could theoretically only get seven teams. Remember that while as many as 12 Big East schools can make a legitimate NCAA case, by no means are eight teams considered “locks.”â†µ

â†µâ†µBut come on, Georgetown is getting in. I used the Hoyas, who have been ranked all season, as a point of illustration, but you could make the same case for Marquette or Louisville as well. When top bracket gurus have your conference tournament’s 11th-seeded team making the NCAAs and your 12th team on the bubble, your conference is just too good. The middle of the pack teams better watch out.â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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