Laying Chalk And Taking Dogs: A Gamblers Look At UFC 111

This article is by no means an encouragement for you to go out and start gambling, it is simply a fun look at one of the more interesting aspects of being a fight fan. We’ll take a look at the big three fights from the show and then try and find you some value in the other fights.

I think Mike Fagan of Bloody Elbow was correct in his assessment of the fight:

Most people don’t like laying a lot of chalk, but if you’ve got the balls to sweat twenty five minutes of wrestling, I think you can find some slim value on GSP at -625. Hardy stands next to no chance of taking a decision and won’t submit Georges. Outside of the Serra Swan, St-Pierre hasn’t found himself in any danger on his feet. Hardy’s going to have to land something coming off a clinch or out of a scramble when St-Pierre might not have his complete composure. Other than that, this fights looks academic.

Since Friday the best line on St. Pierre has actually gotten better, with Sportsbook running him at -600. Bodog still has -625 and you can’t get anywhere else for -700. This is a perfect example of why experts would encourage you to leave money

A lot of bettors are not comfortable with such a heavy favorite in a sport that does have a large amount of randomness with multiple ways to win, injury losses and small gloves adding to the likelihood of a fluke knockout. But the break even rate for the best odds is right around 86%. You’d have to think St. Pierre wins 87% or better of the times these two fight to have a positive expectation. Given that GSP has the better wrestling, submission grappling game, striking and experience...that is still a good way to make a profit. Anything over -650 is a bit too rich for my tastes though.

The standard line on the fight is Mir -155 / Carwin +125. For Mir that works out to roughly a 61% break even rate and Carwin at 44%.

Shane looked a bit softer than most people expected at the weigh-ins. But he’s still a huge man, and I don’t know what to read into it. A play here relies on your willingness to try to self-determine a lot of different factors.

- How good is Shane Carwin’s cardio? As a pro his longest fight was barely over 2 minutes long. Big men with a ton of muscle tend to gas badly, but Brock Lesnar has proven that this is not an absolute.

- For that matter, how good is Frank Mir’s cardio? He’s bulked up to 265 and didn’t have the best history of endurance prior to adding mass. If neither guy can finish in round 1 it could turn into a very sloppy fight between two big, tired heavyweights.

- Both men have very good stopping skills. Who can employ theirs first? Carwin has very heavy hands but Mir has the better boxing technique and a good amount of power himself. That being said, Mir gets hit a lot, which could be a problem. Mir’s submission game is much better than Carwin’s but if Carwin isn’t the one taking it to the ground can Mir do it himself?

Yesterday I picked Mir to win the fight, but I don’t see him winning the fight 62% of the time in my head. I’d make a small play on Carwin if you’re really dying to lay something down on this fight. It’s closer to a coin flip than the odds have it now so Carwin at +120 or better is worth a play.

Sometimes you can find a good value on a late addition to a card. When Thiago Alves dropped out it allowed Ben Saunders to make a jump in competition.

Jon Fitch was preparing for a different kind of fighter in Alves, a good striker with solid takedown defense. Saunders is a good striker but he’s much longer than Alves and really utilizes the clinch well to destroy his opponent with knees. Ben was actually preparing for a reasonably similar fighter to Fitch in Jake Ellenberger.

Fitch isn’t likely to spend much time locked up in Saunders’ clinch and although Mike Pierce found a way to shake Fitch a little bit with strikes in his last fight I don’t know that Saunders can do the same.

I just don’t think Saunders wins the fight a quarter of the time which is what you’d need to take him at around +325. Fitch is a nice play if you’re not afraid of putting something down on a -350 line.

- A lot of people aren’t very high on Fabricio Camoes but I think he’s much better than he showed in the Uno fight. Still, Pellegrino’s decision win over Thiago Tavares bodes very well for his fight with Camoes. Pellegrino is a steal at -200

- Rodney Wallace should be a bigger favorite than -140. Jared Hamman is not very good and Wallace is likely to trounce him. Take Wallace all day at anything below -160.

- If you’re feeling adventurous Matt Brown is an interesting play. Almeida is rightfully the favorite, but he doesn’t mix up his attack much and looked very small making his first cut to 170. Without the size I don’t know how good his wrestling will be and I think Brown can manage to keep the fight on the feet and squeeze out a decision. Matt Brown is sitting at +140, and that line looks sweet to me.