Laying Chalk And Taking Dogs: A Gambler’s Look At UFC Fight Night 21: Florian vs. Gomi

his article is by no means an encouragement for you to go out and start gambling (we would never do that! It’s illegal!), it is simply a fun look at one of the more interesting aspects of being a fight fan. We’ll take a look at the big three fights from the show and then try and find you some value in the other fights.

Florian is a favorite here, as well he should be. But he’s such a heavy favorite that it actually is making me slightly uneasy. Gomi still possesses very solid boxing and he has a lot of stopping power. Given his status as a formerly elite lightweight it’s hard to write him off completely.

I absolutely like Kenny to win this fight, but do I like him at the odds you can get him at most of the major books (-340 to -350)? No way. You’re looking at needing to feel like Florian wins the fight 78% of the time for the right value to exist. There are just too many variables here and Gomi at his best is just too good. I still am pretty confident in a Florian win though. I recommend staying away from this fight.

Struve possesses some of the best natural gifts in the sport. He’s close to seven feet tall, adding muscle every time out, and is slowly developing a competent striking game to go along with his solid jiu jitsu game. Nelson is short and fat. This isn’t me being funny or mean, the guy is maybe six feet tall and weights in at a rotund 263 pounds for this fight.

The weight issue isn’t one that bothers me too much, but the height difference is. There will be roughly a full foot of difference in height here. If Struve has learned to use his length to keep the fight at a distance he can take the fight on points.

I’m fully aware that Nelson has very good jiu jitsu and beat Mir in a grappling match, but Struve is long enough and good enough on the ground that I think he can avoid getting into too much trouble if the fight does hit the ground. It’s all a matter of what happens when the two men are standing up. Struve is going to be able to land some shots and it’s just a matter of if he can get smart enough to not put himself in positions where he jumps into big power shots from shorter men.

My brain says that Nelson will win this, but an intelligent gambler is someone who tries to find odds that create value. Struve is at +325 at Bodog which is much higher than the +265 that he is everywhere else. I think it’s safe to think that Struve wins the fight 25% of the time which makes that line a steal. I recommend a play on Stefan Struve at anything over +300.

Rivera looked as good as he has in years in absolutely brutalizing Rob Kimmons. Kimmons had never been stopped other than by submissions and for two and a half rounds Rivera was pouring some serious heat on him. Nate Quarry is a hell of a tough guy and his fight with Tim Creuder proved that. At the same time it was troubling to see Quarry get hit so often by a guy who he was expected to beat up on the feet. It was a striking war in ways that just was not supposed to be. The first round had Creuder really dominating him on the feet.

Both guys hit hard, both guys tend to get hit a little bit more than they should, both guys are 38 years old, both guys looked better in their movement in the past few fights, they’re about the same height. Quarry has the better chin but Rivera has way more experience and more tools in his toolbox. What I’m saying is that in my book this is very close to a coin flip.

The oddsmakers don’t see it the same way though. Quarry is anywhere from a -260 to -285 so he’s fairly heavily favored. I love Rivera at the +230 line you can get him at right now.

- I’m no big fan of Jason High’s personality, but he is a much better fighter than Charlie Brenneman. We’ve seen that the “Octagon jitters” are a real thing over the past few years and with both of these guys making their UFC debuts you have to look to prior experience. High has been fighting on huge Japanese DREAM shows and fighting some really tough competition. High should win this easy and taking him at -180 is a no-brainer.

- Nik Lentz has a really nice “paper record” and Rob Emerson’s record looks ugly. Until you look at who they’re fighting and how they look. Lentz has a really nice draw with Thiago Tavares which is helping boost him up to his status as anywhere from a -140 to -165 favorite. I like Emerson to win straight up and when I like that to happen with a guy with a + in front of his number I would always recommend playing him. Take Rob Emerson at +120 or better.