SB Nation Bracketology: In The Final Week, 10 Big East Teams Is A Possibility

SB Nation’s Chris Dobbertean, editor of Blogging The Bracket, returns with his projection for the Monday before Selection Sunday. He’ll be updating this stream throughout the week with updates. The next will come Wednesday.

Selection Sunday is just six days away. Hopefully in that time, there will be some clarity regarding the teams at the bottom of the at-large pool. You know, the ones I’ve been tracking over on Bubble Watch.

It’s become increasingly difficult and frustrating to try to separate the last 12 or so teams fighting for the final five or six spots. Would you have thought, just one week ago, that teams like Arizona State, Memphis and Washington would seriously be in the hunt for an at-large?

While I may not take their chances as seriously as some (especially in the case of the Tigers), they all have a chance over the next few days to get in, either by winning their conference tournaments or by winning enough games to pass the teams who are sure to fall simultaneously.

But for the moment, I have 10 Big East teams in Monday’s projection.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

Why? (Especially since I had Ole Miss as the last team in for my Sunday Bubble Watch update.) Well, the Pirates have more wins over teams in this projection than USF or Mississippi do. The Rebels have a better road/neutral mark than both, and the Bulls have more top 50 wins. In this case, I knock Ole Miss down a peg because of the weakness of the SEC West. All nine of their conference wins came against teams that are fighting for NIT spots at best, with several of those being closer than necessary.

Of course, all three teams will have to win some games in their conference tournaments this week to get closer to the real bracket.

Here’s a look at how the field breaks down with less than a week to go.

Mid-Major Conference Championship Games: Monday, in particular, is a big night for nervous bubble teams. They’ll be cheering for Old Dominion in the CAA final at 7 p.m. Eastern, as Old Dominion is likely to snag an at-large if they fall. St. Mary’s can ease their bubble worries by claiming the West Coast crown at 9 p.m. ET. To do that, they’ll need to beat a Gonzaga team they’ve struggled against over the past few seasons, who is fighting to stay in Spokane for the first round. That won’t happen if they fall to a six or seven seed.

Siena can book their place if they win the Metro Atlantic final at home (7 p.m. ET). A loss would be likely be fatal because of their lack of non-conference wins. However, in my opinion, if you are considering Memphis for an at-large at this point, the Saints deserve a look as well.

Later in the week, pay attention to the WAC Tournament in Reno, as Utah State has legitimate at-large chances if they don’t win the conference crown.

Teams On The Verge: I already mentioned that Seton Hall and USF have little margin for error. (I discuss their cases a bit more in Bubble Watch.) But Florida, Georgia Tech and Illinois have to grab some wins in their conference tournaments.

The Yellow Jackets cannot lose to North Carolina in the 7/10 game of the ACC Tournament on Thursday. A game with Maryland awaits in the quarterfinals if they knock off the Tar Heels.

As I will be on the road back from Richmond tonight, my next projection will come on Wednesday morning.