How Do You Solve a Problem Like Dontrelle Willis?

Once upon a time, Dontrelle Willis was a great major league pitcher. In 2003, he went 14-6, struck out nearly eight batters per nine innings, and helped the Florida Marlins win the World Series; in 2005, he went 22-10, posted a 2.63 ERA, and finished second in NL Cy Young voting.

Now, those statistics feel like relics from another era. Even with a performance that recalled some of that old glory on Thursday -- conceding two runs in six innings to the Royals -- Willis seems like an entirely different player, even if he’s the same person he’s always been.

It’s been a long road back to this point as a pitcher, with injuries and control problems sending Willis in the minors and psychological issues keeping him there. He says, now, that he’s fine. He seems to have perspective.

⇥⇥“Just because I suck doesn’t mean life’s over,” (Willis) said. “If you’re a bad baseball player, you get to go home. If you’re a bad astronaut or soldier, it’s a different ballgame. Not to say you don’t care about your craft. …⇥⇥⇥⇥“Even when I struggle, I’m thankful because it taught me how to lose with class and how to really take a step back and learn how to get yourself better. What’s a sunny day if every day’s sunny?”⇥⇥

But he also seems to take no credit for his former brilliance, accepting it only as caprice. Hitters in 2005 “were just lining out,” Willis says. “I’m dead serious. That’s the difference. Sorry. I’m just telling you, man.”He’s not quite right.

In 2005, he notched a 2.99 in Fielding Independent Pitching, which is .36 higher than his ERA was, but still stellar, good for sixth in the majors and just .19 behind MLB leader Johan Santana. Willis’ idea of defense-aided success is best proven by his 2006 season: His home runs allowed jumped from 11 to 21, he gave up 234 hits, and while his ERA stayed decent (3.87), his FIP soared (4.31).That’s the only time in Willis’ career, though, that there was a difference of .40 or more between his ERA and FIP. In 2003, the difference was just .15; in 2004, his ERA (4.02) was actually higher than his FIP (4.01); in 2007, he was just bad by nearly every metric, giving up 29 homers and 241 hits en route to plus-5.00 ERA and FIP numbers.

Willis’ concept of himself as a pitcher who got lucky with lineouts both underestimates the talents that made him good in his first four years with Florida and downplays the depths of the control problems (63 BB in 57.2 IP between 2008 and 2009) that have haunted him in Detroit. Maybe that’s part of the atypical anxiety disorder that has plagued Willis, one that seems to affect his ability to throw a baseball past MLB hitters more than it does his smile or his public confidence.

Willis is not the first major leaguer to be beset by psychological issues, nor will he be the last. But Joey Votto, Zack Greinke, and Rick Ankiel have all come back from mental problems of varying degrees, which no doubt spurs discussion in Detroit about Willis’ toughness, and the Tigers have tinkered with Willis’ unique whirling delivery rather than put him through long-term counseling. Without an explanation or cure for the troubles on the mound, Willis’ skills likely aren’t enough to keep him around to try other therapies.

So Willis will be throwing for his career this year, with banishment to the minors or the wilderness looming should he slip. Until then, he is an enigma, an unsolved riddle concerning evanescent talent, a question about the mind’s influence on the ability to play baseball and the willingness of baseball personnel to treat the brain as an important muscle.

As ever, Dontrelle Willis bears watching, if only to see whether the sun will shine.

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