NBA Talking Points: Who’s The Best Bet To Win The Title?

Originally, I had something else planned for the playoff preview, but a series of unfortunate events prevented me from giving a “full preview” the attention it deserved. So instead of halfheartedly discussing the first round matchups or running through some gimmicky preview, let’s just get down to it.

Who’s gonna win it all?

Or, more specifically, who’s the best bet to win it all? Obviously, the Lakers and Cavs are the favorites at this point, but could the Mavericks make a run? What about the Nuggets or Magic, two teams that were on the doorstep last year? With that in mind, let’s take a look at the odds for each contender. We’ll have to separate them into a few separate categories. First up...

YOU MAY AS WELL SET THAT MONEY ON FIRE

Since most of the 16 playoff teams don’t really have a shot at winning an NBA title, this label could obviously apply to a good portion of the teams in play. But then, there are some longshots that really don’t have a prayer this spring. These are those teams.

Chicago Bulls -- 150/1 As much as we love to make fun of Vinny Del Negro, he really only has two players that could be considered “good.” As in, the Bulls have exactly two players that other teams would actively court. But beyond Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, the Bulls’ most intriguing player is Brad Miller, and he’s only intriguing for irony’s sake. Does that sound like a team that can win a playoff game, let alone a series, let alone a title?

Boston Celtics -- 12/1 Let’s put it this way: Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have played over 2,000 regular season games, they’ve gone 24-23 since January 1st, and their coach is considering retirement. That’s not the way you want to enter the postseason as a “title contender.” I know it sounds like a savvy pick with those odds and the playoff history, but let me save you the trouble.

Here’s some lighter fluid. Just set a stack of money on fire and watch Good Will Hunting.

Milwaukee Bucks -- 125/1

I actually really like this Bucks team...

But when John Salmons is your best scorer, John Salmons is your best scorer.

Charlotte Bobcats -- 100/1

Charlotte’s got one of the league’s best defenses, but then... so does Orlando. In fact, they finished first and second in defensive efficiency this season. And if two good defenses sqaure off, that means two things. First, it’s going to be UGLY basketball, and second, you gotta take the team with better superstars. Or any superstars, in this case.

In close playoff games, the superstars are generally what makes the difference. So... Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson vs. Vince Carter and Dwight Howard. Hmm. Let’s move on.

Miami Heat -- 100/1

The Miami Heat are in the same boat as Chicago. Let’s take a look at the players on the Miami Heat NOT named Dwyane Wade.

It reads like Indians roster at the beginning of Major League. Jamaal Magloire still plays in the NBA? I thought that guy was dead. Kenny Hasbrouck? Who are some of these guys?

via www.walkoffwalk.com

ONE IN A MILLION? SO YOU’RE SAYING...
Notice how all of the “set your money on fire” teams were from the East. Yes, it’s true: Five of the eight teams in the Eastern Conference have no chance at winning the NBA Title under any circumstances. This includes a team with Dwyane Wade, and the Boston Celtics, who won a title with almost this exact same team two years ago. It’s just been that kind of year...

But hey, how ‘bout these underdogs?!

Utah Jazz -- 20/1

With a different draw, Utah could really make some noise, mainly because they’ve got the best home court advantage in the league, one of the three best coaches in the league (Sloan, Phil Jackson, Popovich ... you pick the order), and a superstar in Deron Williams that could potentially carry them much further than they’re ever supposed to go.

That’s what I originally wrote when I put them in the first category, but then I realized... “Hey, Utah’s actually looking pretty intriguing right now.” They’ve got the best crowd in basketball, they’re playing a Nuggets team that’s hobbled into the playoffs, and Deron Williams is due for a breakout performance. Could they beat the Nuggets and the Lakers in successive series? Maybe not, but if they do, why can’t they go all the way?

Oklahoma City Thunder -- 55/1

You’re damn right they’ve got a chance! If they beat the Lakers in the first round, they’ll have tons of momentum, the all important underdog factor, and KEVIN F—ING DURANT, all working in their favor. And the beauty of the Western Conference is that except for the Lakers and maybe the Mavericks, everybody’s got roughly the same amount of talent. There’s a reason the playoff race came down to the final day of the season.

All things being equal in the NBA playoffs: you take the team with the best player, and best chemistry. Oklahoma City wins most of those battles, and at 55/1, why not roll the dice with a side wager?

Portland Trail Blazers -- 60/1

As long as Brandon Roy’s in street clothes...

It’s probably not happening for Portland. But at 60-1, after all the storms they’ve weathered this year, and with their home court advantage, it’s not that crazy to pick the Blazers come together and shock the world.

If you had to choose between the Celtics at 12-1 and Blazers at 60-1, you take the Blazers. If anything, siding with Portland is just good karma.

Atlanta Hawks -- 25/1

People have overlooked the Hawks all year long, mainly because they can’t beat Orlando and Cleveland. But say Dwight Howard gets in foul trouble in a few of the Orlando-Atlanta games... And let’s say Jamal Crawford gets hot off the bench in a handful of games that series. Neither of those things is inconceivable, right?

If that happens, Atlanta can beat Orlando. And if they can make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland’s going to have A LOT of pressure on them to win, whereas the Hawks would be playing with house money at that point. Could they upset the Cavs and THEN upset whoever wins the West? Probably not, which is why I wish the odds were higher here. At 35/1 or 40/1, the Hawks would be in the next category, as a legitimately reasonable gamble.

At 25/1, we’re still talking about a team that’d go down in history as one of the most surprising title winners of all time. Probably ever, actually. Still, one in a million...

LIKE SIGNING AMARE TO A MAX DEAL THIS SUMMER: CALCULATED GAMBLES

Phoenix Suns -- 22/1

With no Robin Lopez, it’s hard to like the Suns as a legit contender. They’d be in the “money on fire” category, except that all year long, it’s been difficult to take the Suns seriously. They just keep winning, and over the second half, they’ve been as good as anyone in the entire NBA.

Let’s see... Play the Blazers without Brandon Roy in the first round, then the winner of Dallas-San Antonio. Could they win both of those series? If Robin Lopez can return after the first round, then absolutely. And let’s say Los Angeles gets knocked off by Denver, OKC, or Utah. The Suns can beat any of those teams, particularly if Amare continues hitting on all cylinders, and Steve Nash takes his game to another level (which you know he would, since this would probably be his last real shot at a title). Put them in the finals against LeBron and it could get ugly, but that’s if Cleveland gets that far. The Phoenix Suns against Orlando? Hey, there’s a chance...

If the Cavs and Lakers lose, the Suns could win. At 22/1, it’s not half-bad...

San Antonio Spurs -- 20/1

The Spurs are like the Celtics, except less arrogant and far better coached. They’re more experienced than anyone in the league, they’ve got Tony Parker back healthy, and they’ve got Tim Duncan, who can anchor things at both ends. I’m not saying they’ll even beat the Mavericks, but at 20/1, it’s tempting to take a flier on the Spurs dynasty having one last renaissance.

Denver Nuggets -- 12/1

Here’s the thing with the Nuggets: They’ve got the players. Chauncey Billups is a superstar that’s built for the playoffs, Carmelo Anthony is one of the best pure scorers on the planet, and their role players (J.R. Smith, Chris Anderson, Nene, K-Mart, Ty Lawson) are all pretty fantastic. But with George Karl battling cancer and Kenyon Martin sidelined lately, the team’s regressed.

This isn’t to say that Denver’s got no shot, but for a few years now, that team’s biggest problem has been handling adversity. When the going gets tough... ‘Melo and JR Smith mope, Chauncey shows his age, and everyone remembers that Kenyon Martin has had blown out his knee three times. When they’re rolling, this team’s in another stratosphere, and they can beat the best teams in the league, convincingly. But other times, they just seem like an immature, overrated group. The truth is somewhere in between, I think.

So, again: Denver’s a calculated risk. If they get on a roll, watch out. But take it from someone that put 50 bucks on the Nuggets as NBA Champs at 15-1 earlier this year: gauging this team’s potential is incredibly frustrating. One night, they look amazing. The next two nights, they’re a mess.

Generally, that doesn’t work out so well in the NBA Playoffs.

WANT TO WIN MONEY? YOU’VE COME TO THE RIGHT PLACE

Remember, now... We’re talking about the best bets. Obviously the Lakers and Cavaliers are favorites, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s the best play, gambling wise. So keep that in mind as we rank the final four gambles.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers -- 17/10

First of all, let me say that I think the Cavaliers will win the NBA Title. Let me also say... I thought the same thing last year. Adding Antawn Jamison to this year’s mix was great, but it doesn’t necessarily put them over the top. Ultimately, the Cavaliers are still from Cleveland.

Think that city’s “cursed”? It doesn’t matter. The fans do, and that affects the team. At the first sign of disaster, the crowd gets tense, the media starts hovering and writing about curses, and it all trickles down to the court. One of the reasons the Lakers can coast at times is because the fans aren’t worried about their team. Lakers fans just assume that the Lakers will always be good, whereas Cleveland fans assume that somehow, some way, their favorite teams will find a way to lose. So that’s number one.

Number two? Mike Brown’s a problem. He’s great during the regular season, but remember when things went south in the Eastern Conference Finals last year? Through that whole series, you never saw Mike Brown switch things up defensively, or go small, or... do anything, really. This isn’t to say he’s a bad coach, but when handicapping playoff teams, it’s always more comforting to have a coach that you know will thrive in a close series.

Do we know that with Mike Brown?

LeBron James is the best player alive and the Cavs have had a flawless regular season, but again... Both of those things were true last year. It’s still Cleveland and Mike Brown’s still the coach, and at +170, you’re risking almost as much you win. Nothing against King James, but from a gambler’s standpoint, it’s just not worth it.

3. Orlando Magic -- 6/1

Let’s see... Best defensive team in the playoffs, good coach, superstar that can dominate both ends, good chemistry. Why are these guys 6/1 and not next to the Cavs and Lakers? Make no mistake: the Magic are in that category. Swapping Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter hasn’t gone as smoothly as anyone would have hoped, but, um, VC shot 50% from the field in February and March. And last time I checked, they’ve still got Dwight Howard.

There’s no reason these guys can’t beat Cleveland, and then topple whoever emerges from the West. Is it likely? Not necessarily, but it’s not nearly as unlikely as that 6/1 number would suggest.

(The only reason they’re not number one here is because betting on Vince Carter to do anything could just as easily go in the “set your money fire” category. So, um, keep that in mind. And let’s not forget, they did lose to...)

2. Los Angeles Lakers -- 5/2

The Lakers have more talent than anyone in the NBA. They’ve got Phil Jackson, they’ve got Kobe as a closer, they’ve got Ron Artest as a defensive stopper, they’ve got Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol anchoring things down low, they’ve got Lamar Odom coming off the bench... And except for Kobe’s ability in crunch time, every one of those assets is overrated.

The Lakers are better than anyone else, but they’re not the juggernaut they look like on paper. Ron Artest has been getting by on reputation for a few seasons now, Odom can be counted on to disappear in at least three games of any series, and neither Gasol nor Bynum can really be looked upon as a “dominant” second option to Kobe. Throw in the Lakers’ propensity for coasting through games--even in the playoffs--and there are definitely some red flags with this team.

Why are they above the Cavs? Let’s say you’re betting on who you think is going to win the NBA Title, regardless of odds. With those paramaters, 9 out of 10 people would take either the Cavs or Lakers. And if you’re choosing between betting the Lakers or Cavs in a 7 game series, you’re basically flipping a coin. Except that one side of the coin pays you more money if you win...

L.A. sounds like a better bet, no?

1. Dallas Mavericks -- 12/1

Want a dark horse to win the NBA title? Look no further than these guys. At 12/1, they’ve got more top-to-bottom talent than anyone, including L.A. and the Cavs. They’ve got a solid coach in Rick Carlisle, a superstar that’s unstoppable when he’s hitting shots (Dirk Nowitzki), and a team full of veterans that have just enough left for one more playoff run.

When you compare their roster to any of the other three “contenders” in this section, Dallas wins. They don’t have LeBron James on offense or Dwight Howard on defense, but they’ve got Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler on offense, along with Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood on defense. And more importantly, Dallas has a roster full of guys that thrive on winning teams.

Caron Butler, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, JJ Barea, Deshawn Stevenson... In a different situation, each of those guys has fatal flaws that make them less appealing. But together, and with Dirk Nowitzki as the focal point to that team, they’re not asked to do too much, and suddenly, we see a bunch of guys that may be getting old, but still have a lot left in the tank.

(Note: the supporting cast in Dallas is similar to that of L.A., except that the LA’s guys are all vastly overpaid, with not much left to prove. A far cry from someone like Shawn Marion or Caron Bulter.)

They’re 23-7 since the trade, and at times, they’ve looked downright dominant with the new lineup. Again, they may not have LeBron or Kobe or Dwight, but Dirk’s not far behind those guys, and his supporting cast trumps all of ‘em. The Mavs are the sleeping giant out West and in the whole league, and at 12/1 you can make some serious money taking Dallas.

If you’re afraid of the risk, then fine. Take Kobe or LeBron to win it. But know this: both those teams are more vulnerable than they look, and we’re gambling here. Backing Mark Cuban just feels right.