| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | ML |
| 1 | Lookin At Lucky | Garrett Gomez | Bob Baffert | 3/1 |
| 2 | Ice Box | Jose Lezcano | Nick Zito | 10/1 |
| 3 | Noble's Promise | Willie Martinez | Kenneth McPeek | 12/1 |
| 4 | Super Saver | Calvin Borel | Todd Pletcher | 15/1 |
| 5 | Line of David | Rafael Bejerano | John Sadler | 30/1 |
| 6 | Stately Victor | Alan Garcia | Michael Maker | 30/1 |
| 7 | American Lion | David Flores | Eoin Harty | 30/1 |
| 8 | Dean's Kitten | Cornelio Velasquez | Michael Maker | 50/1 |
| 9 | Make Music for Me | Joel Rosario | Alexis Barba | 50/1 |
| 10 | Paddy O'Prado | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 20/1 |
| 11 | Devil May Care | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 10/1 |
| 12 | Conveyance | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 12/1 |
| 13 | Jackson Bend | Mike Smith | Nick Zito | 15/1 |
| 14 | Mission Impazible | Rajiv Maragh | Todd Pletcher | 20/1 |
| 15 | Discreetly Mine | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 30/1 |
| 16 | Awesome Act | Julien Leparoux | Jerry Noseda | 10/1 |
| 17 | Dublin | Terry Thompson | D. Wayne Lukas | 12/1 |
| 18 | Backtalk | Manuel Mena | Tom Amoss | 50/1 |
| 19 | Homeboykris | Edgar Prado | Richard Dutrow | 50/1 |
| 20 | Sidney's Candy | Joe Talamo | John Sadler | 5/1 |
2010 Kentucky Derby Post Positions: Breaking Down Favorites, Speed, Closers, Long-Shots
The Favorites: Today’s post position draw for the Derby was a major blow to the chances of the two horses that many believed would be the betting favorites at post time: 1-Lookin At Lucky (3/1) and 20-Sidney’s Candy (5/1). Bob Baffert’s Lookin At Lucky received the very short end of the stick when his colt drew post position #1. Prior to the draw, if you asked Baffert which of the twenty posts he didn’t want, I’d wager my 401k (what’s left of it) that he’d have said #1.
Lookin At Lucky was made the 3/1 favorite by Churchill Downs odds maker Mike Battaglia, but the draw probably makes him more of a 5/1 to 6/1 to win. The problem with his draw is that Lucky is a horse that has been in a lot of traffic trouble in his previous races, and it always seems to be the traffic that prevents him from winning (his race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is a prime example of this). With the #1 post position, Lucky is going to have nineteen horses to his outside, all of which will be fighting to get over towards the rail heading into the first turn. In order to avoid getting boxed in it is likely that jockey Garrett Gomez is going to have to ask him for more run early on in the race and that will severely compromise his chances to win.
Looking At Lucky is probably a poor bet to win if his odds are at 3/1 at post time.
The second choice on the morning line, Sidney’s Candy, drew all the way out to post position #20. The last horse to win from the twenty spot was Big Brown in 2008, but that was a different horse, a different day, and a different race. At morning line odds of 5/1 that’s a so-so proposition. Currently, there’s a lot of debate as to whether Sidney’s Candy can rate behind the speed or if he has to be on the lead. We’ll know pretty quickly on Saturday when the gates open when Joe Talamo will either gun it for the front or settle in towards the rail.
The Speed: Bob Baffert may be bummed about the draw for Lookin At Lucky, but his other horse, 12-Conveyance (12/1), is placed perfectly in post position #12. He’ll have every opportunity to use his natural speed to secure a good position near the lead and at 12/1 morning line odds he becomes an interesting play.
The connections of 4-Super Saver (15/1) have got to be happy with the four spot as their jockey, Calvin Borel, would like nothing more than to skim the rail all the way around the track. 15/1 or higher would be a really nice price on a colt that has a ton of talent and great connections.
Given his post position and natural speed, 5-Line of David (50/1) is probably going to be fighting for the lead with Conveyance going into the first turn. He needs to break hard from the gate or else he’s going to get boxed in badly by all the horses to his outside, which is not a good thing for a horse that has done all his winning on the lead. 50/1 might be a little low in terms of his actual chances of winning this race.
The Closers: Given the difficult post position draws of the two favorites, some of the closers in the Derby become intriguing betting propositions. Florida Derby winner 2-Ice Box (10/1), draws inside in the #2 position, but that shouldn’t be a problem at all for him as he’s not going to show much speed out of the starting gate and won’t have to battle for position.
Other possible closers like 6-Stately Victor (30/1), 17-Dublin (12/1), and 18-Backtalk (50/1), should all be fine in terms of the draw. All the closers should have a much easier trip early on in the race, although they’ll have to deal with traffic as they come into the home stretch.
The Long Shots: If you’re looking for a horse at odds of 20/1 or higher, there are a couple that would appear to have a decent shot to do some damage. Stately Victor and Backtalk are both colts that could use their late closing style to take advantage of a fast early pace. Backtalk’s wide post shouldn’t be a problem since he’ll take back and tuck inside in the first few furlongs. Stately Victor is drawn perfectly for a horse that wants to close.
The Dale Romans trained 10-Paddy O’Prado (20/1) drew an excellent spot to secure a stalking trip heading into the first turn. Kent Desormeaux shouldn’t have to expend too much energy to get towards the front and the speed to his outside pretty much ensures that he won’t get hung wide going into the first turn.
See More:
