Magic Stake Claim As Title Favorites After Sweeping Hawks

It’s time to start paying attention to the goings on in Orlando. Sure, the Magic may not be part of any “great debate” or boast any of the league’s scintillating scorers (Dwight Howard isn’t quite there offensively and 2001 seems like forever ago for Vince Carter), but Stan Van Gundy’s squad has emerged over the past two months as the odds-on favorite to capture the NBA title. So for all those marketers banking on a Kobe-vs-Lebron Finals matchup: sorry, but the Magic look likely to not only supplant the Chosen One from his rightful place on the NBA’s biggest stage once again, but also to deny Kobe and Co. from collecting another ring.

Indeed, after the Magic eviscerated the Hawks by an unthinkable 43 points in Game 1 of their second-round series, we wondered whether Orlando should be considered the frontrunners to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy. Following their devastating sweep of Atlanta -- it was the most lopsided four game series in NBA history -- the answer is clear: unequivocally, yes. As ESPN’s John Hollinger points out, the Magic have put up some simply staggering numbers the past two months:

Want to guess the Magic’s record in their 30 games since March 1? Would you believe 27-3?[...] [But] they aren’t just beating people -- they’re killing them. Twenty of the 27 wins have been by double figures, and many were one-sided beatdowns -- such as the wins by 43 and 30 over Atlanta in Games 1 and 3. Monday’s win, by a mere 14, barely moved the needle on their average victory margin.

See if you can wrap your heads around this one: Orlando has outscored opponents by a whopping 421 points over its past 30 games. To put this in perspective, the Lakers, Suns and Celtics -- who could be the other three teams left standing when the conference finals start next week -- didn’t outscore the opposition by 421 points over the entirety of the 82-game regular season, much less in the final 30 games of it. That’s an average of 14 points per game, which simply isn’t done over long stretches -- nobody else in the NBA had an average margin even half that size during the regular season. [...] the preponderance of evidence suggests the Magic are better than anybody right now.

Mind boggling comes to mind, but it doesn’t really come close to describing how inconceivable these figures are. Consider: during the Bulls’ record-setting 72-10 season in 1996, Jordan’s team racked up a 12.2 scoring margin for the season, second all time (by a tenth of a point) to the ‘72 Lakers. Pretty heady company. And Orlando’s 14-point differential translates to an expected 88% Pythagorean winning percentage, a simply ungodly number.

So how does this compare to pair of presumed favorites, the Cavs and the Lakers? Over their past 30 games respectively, the Cavs have garnered a respectable +4.5 scoring margin, while the Lakers stumbled a bit with a +0.7 point differential. Now there are certainly mitigating factors for both Cleveland and Los Angeles -- the Cavs rested LeBron down the stretch to keep him fresh for the playoffs, while the Lakers coasted for weeks with the top seed in the West all but wrapped up -- but there is simply no comparison with what Orlando has done over a similar period.

Again, the numbers are nearly incomprehensible. The Cavs’ +4.5 margin gives a 65% expected winning percentage -- not bad at all -- but in a hypothetical matchup on a neutral court with Orlando, Stan Van Gundy’s squad would be expected to win 79% of the time. Over a seven game series, the chances of the Magic getting eliminated are so infinitesimal as to be farcical. And against the Lakers, it’s even more absurd: the Magic would be expected to win a single game against Phil Jackson’s team 87% of the time.

Of course, it’s important not to get too caught up in the numbers when matchups are so pivotal in determining playoff series. Last season, Cleveland was on a similar tear through the first two rounds before running into the buzzsaw that was Orlando, never finding an answer for Hedo Turkoglu’s playmaking or Dwight Howard’s menacing presence inside. But this year’s Orlando team seems different. They obviously have the size to neutralize the Lakers’ gargantuan front court, as well as the type of quick point guard in Jameer Nelson who have given the Lakers fits for years. And while Vince Carter is not quite the mistmatch for the Cavs that Turkoglu was, the Magic’s bevy of three-point shooters and offensive options galore figure to test Cleveland’s defense once again. Indeed, when the biggest criticism your fans can come up with is that you haven’t quite been getting to the line enough (mind you, that’s because you’re making so many three-pointers), you know things are going well. As SB Nation’s Orlando Pinstriped Post pointed out after their quiet, workman-like 14-point, closeout win over the Hawks:

So Orlando hasn’t lost in 38 days, and won’t play again for at least another week as it awaits the winner of the Boston Celtics/Cleveland Cavaliers series. The Magic will take the win, but coach Stan Van Gundy is now tasked with keeping his team energized, engaged, and prepared during another long layoff. And he does have to be concerned a bit, I think, with the miscues and lack of free-throw attempts. But overall? “Solid” doesn’t even begin to describe his team’s performance in this series.

They’re right: Solid really doesn’t come close to describing this team. Try scary.