2010 Preakness Stakes: Where Beating The Odds Means Betting The Favorite

With the Kentucky Derby behind us it’s time to take a look at the Preakness Stakes at Old Hilltop, Pimlico. The following is a look at the favorites and long shots in the race, along with some wagering ideas based on what we’ve seen in years past.

Derby winner Super Saver grabs the favorite tag for the second leg of the Triple Crown at 5/2 on the morning line. Those odds make sense given that this is a race that is light on speed and not loaded with talent. He’s no lock to win, but it’s tough to argue that he doesn’t deserve to be the favorite. I think he’s an excellent play if he were to drift up to 3/1 or higher on the board.

Lookin At Lucky was tabbed as the second choice at 3/1 after experiencing a brutal trip in his Derby run. Considering how often this colt gets into trouble during a race (and he’s three-for-three in that category this spring), it’s really hard to take odds of 3/1 on him. If he were to drift up to the 5/1 neighborhood he might offer some value, but 3/1 seems too low.

The third choice on the morning line is Paddy O’Prado (9/2), the show horse from the Derby. His strong run in Kentucky obliterated any chance this colt would be as high in the betting as he was at Churchill where he was sent off at 12/1. We’ll have to wait and see how the betting progresses on Saturday, but I won’t be shocked if Paddy is right with Lucky in terms of odds when they go to the post.

Pleasant Prince (20/1) and Yawanna Twist (30/1) are both closers that generally want to see a strong pace on the front end in order to run their best race, and it’s unlikely that will get as fast of a pace as we saw in the Derby. That fact alone will greatly compromise their chances on Saturday. Schoolyard Dreams (15/1), however, has all the makings of a live long shot: he’s coming in fresh after racing on April 3rd in the Wood Memorial and he ran stride-for-stride with Super Saver in the stretch at the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this spring. The crowd might pound him down from the 15/1 morning line, but if they don’t, he could be an enticing play.

California invader Caracortado (10/1) draws outside in a field that has little to no pace to speak of. He’s generally used to stalking the pace, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him try to go for the lead early on (along with First Dude). If he were to grab the lead, and if he’s able to get some slow fractions early on, he could have an outside chance at taking them the distance. Considering some of the other betting options in this race, Caracortado could slip to somewhere around 15/1 on the tote board. I don’t know if that’s high enough to entice a bet on this gelding, but it’s getting close.

Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness is generally not an event in which you are going to see boxcar numbers all over the tote board following the race. Favorites have done well in this race over the last 10 years. Actually, that’s an understatement -- favorites have dominated in this race over the last 10 years. And while that doesn’t necessarily mean that the favorite will win this year, it does indicate that the crowd does a very good job at sorting out the true contenders year-after-year. There are some races where the mob does a poor job of picking out the winners (graded stakes on the Polytrack at Keeneland, for one) and races where they do a good job. The Preakness is generally a race that falls into the latter category.

Over the last 10 years, the favorite has won the Preakness seven times; Fusaichi Pegasus and Street Sense both finished second as the favorite, while the tragic Barbaro did not finish the race. Since favorites do so well in this race the pari-mutuel payouts tend to be on the low side. In other words, the chance that you are going to hit a life changing score in the Preakness is much less than it is in the Derby.

One of the best paying wagers at the Preakness this last decade is the exacta, with a median return of $60.30 on a $2 base bet. The trifecta, on the other hand, has only managed to pay a median of $307.90 for a $2 bet in that same time span. Contrast those numbers to the Derby where the median exacta and tri payouts are $364.30 and $7,432, respectively.

Once we accept the fact that the payouts at the Preakness are dramatically different than those in the Derby, we can formulate a much better strategy for betting the race. Simply put, boxing a lot of long shots and hoping for glory is an easy path towards a pile full of IRS write-offs at the end of the day. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t still look for a big score or a big odds horse to bet on, but at the same time we have to realistic about the payouts we will see.

A simple way to attack the Preakness would be to cold punch exacta tickets multiple times. What I mean by that is this: let’s say you like Lookin At Lucky to finish first as your top choice, with Dublin and Super Saver as your next best. You could box all three in a bet that would cost you $12 and if you hit it for the median exacta payout you’d score$60, for a return of 5/1 odds. Or you could structure your ticket to increase the return - take that same $12 bet and bet Looking At Lucky over Super Saver for $8 and Lookin at Lucky over Dublin at $4. Now if you hit the exacta you would have the $2 payout 4x for the Lucky/Super combination, and the Lucky/Dublin combination 2x. You have less combinations and numbers working for you, but you’ll be rewarded with more dollars if your handicapping is correct.

In the above example, even if the payout comes in under the median, the multiplier helps to offset the reduced payout. If the Lucky/Super Saver exacta paid only $30 for $2 and you have an $8 bet working, you’d get paid $120, essentially 15/1 odds. If you had hit the Lucky/Super Saver combo with your $12 exacta box and it pays only $30, you are getting a paltry 5/2 on your bet.

While there is never a guarantee that you’ll hit a winning bet, you can guarantee that you receive the most from your dollars by betting as efficiently and effectively as possible.