At the end of the day, there's really only one major explanation for Orlando's two-game comeback against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Sure, Dwight Howard has played better, and sure, Boston got hurt last night by Kendrick Perkins' shady ejection.
NBA Playoffs Thursday Night Viewing Guide: Jameer Nelson Is Orlando’s Barometer, But You Knew That Already
Orlando’s comeback has proved that Jameer Nelson is the barometer of their team, but you knew that already, so we also take a quick trip down memory lane.
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But really, the Magic's resurgence has been about Jameer Nelson. In the first three games of this series, Nelson shot 17-44 from the field (including 6-21 on threes) and averaged just 14.7 points and 2.3 assists per game. Rajon Rondo dominated him in the individual matchup between the two, and naturally, Orlando struggled. But in the last two games, Nelson has come alive, averaging 23.5 points and seven assists per game on 13-24 shooting from the field, including 7-11 from downtown. Meanwhile, Rondo struggled in Game 4 and wasn't his best in Game 5 either. That alone has really propelled the Magic to new heights in this series.
It's not an accident either, because Stan Van Gundy made a key adjustment between Games 3 and 4. Normally, Nelson makes plays with the help of a single high pick and roll. When Orlando's offense is working, it's because Nelson is being aggressive and looking for his shot coming off that screen. But the Celtics, led by Rondo, smothered that play in the first three games, which rendered Nelson a non-factor. In response, Van Gundy decided to run a second screener to the ball, making it more difficult for Rondo to fight through and stay with Nelson. Rondo's defensive effect has fallen off, and Nelson has been open for more shot attempts.
So Nelson’s been the difference in this series. But the truth is, smart NBA fans understand how important he is to the Magic. I don’t really need to spell it out any further. Instead, I’ll just close with this thought.
If anyone remembers last year, they remember how Jameer Nelson was an all-star and Rajon Rondo was not. What you might not remember is that there was a bit of a debate about who should be the point guards on the Eastern Conference team. The final two slots came down to Nelson, Rondo and Mo Williams. Obviously, Mo Williams was a huge mistake that we will never speak of again, but the argument between Nelson and Rondo was really interesting at the time. Nelson was a superior scorer and shooter, but Rondo was quietly having a breakout year, particularly defensively and with his passing. Nelson eventually got the nod, but you could have just as easily argued that Rondo deserved it.
In the one and a half year since then, a lot has changed for both players. Nelson got hurt, came back too soon in the NBA Finals, played poorly, then got hurt again this year and struggled for much of the season. Meanwhile, Rondo’s stock just kept growing, spurred at first by his tremendous 2009 playoff performance. This year, he got his all-star berth, and in Boston’s upset over Cleveland, he was arguably the best player on the court. Sure, Rondo was much younger than Nelson, and therefore had much more room to grow, but it really is amazing how both players’ fortunes change over the course of just a year.
And yet, in this Eastern Conference Finals, the two once again are being compared to each other. It is their matchup that has determined the course of the series, one that is now suddenly close. It’s funny how the more things change, the more things stay the same.
Rambling over. Let’s get on to tonight.
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers: Game 5, 9:00 p.m., TNT
Game 4 in one sentence: The Suns’ bench showed up in a big way, pulling away from the Lakers’ starters in an exciting fourth quarter.
Problem the Lakers must solve to win: I continue to believe the Lakers need to fix the offense, and once they do that, the defense will take care of itself. The Lakers’ offensive stats look good, but the zone is forcing them to take more outside shots, which allows Phoenix to run. The Lakers need to work the ball inside as a means to control tempo.
Problem the Suns must solve to win again: Even with Phoenix's zone working, Kobe Bryant still went off. It's hard for me to sit here and say that the Suns need to defend Kobe Bryant better, because they probably can't. But if they want to win in LA, they have to somehow find a way to get it done.
Totally inconsequential thing I want to see happen: Hey, you, Robin Lopez? More of this, please.
Prediction: The Lakers always win games like this. It’s just how life goes. Lakers 112, Suns 100.
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