After Routing Hawks, Should The Magic Be Title Favorites?

It wasn’t supposed to happen like this. Not after the past two seasons. The Hawks were building. After shockingly pushing the soon-to-be-champion Celtics to seven games in the first round in 2008, Atlanta followed up with a short-lived second round appearance last year against the heavily favored LeBrons. But with another year for the young’uns to develop, this was the season they were supposed to push their opponent in the second round. That was the trajectory.

Then Game 1 of the Magic series happened. Granted, it’s “just one game” in coach-speak...but teams that lose by 43 points generally don’t bounce back to be competitive, let alone win a playoff series (to be fair, the 1956 St. Louis Hawks did manage to dispatch Minneapolis despite losing a game by 58 points, thanks to ekeing out a pair of one-point wins in their best-of-three series). Indeed, Orlando’s demolition of Atlanta -- which featured a 60-21 run during the second and third quarters -- should be a stark reminder that the Magic are really, really good, and that the Hawks will be lucky to make it to a Game 5. So much for progressing (and even more depressing for the Hawks faithful is the very real possibility that Atlanta may have already peaked, with Joe Johnson perhaps set to bolt in free agency this summer).

But, really, there shouldn’t be too much shame in getting waxed by Orlando (okay, although not by 43 points). Especially when they play near flawlessly, as they did in Game 1, per SB Nation’s Orlando Pinstriped Post:

And if you’re the Magic, it’s hard to find a negative in this game. Really, the team executed about as well as it could have during the game’s competitive portions...the Magic, for the first 36 minutes or so of this game, ran their offense to perfection. Everything was inside-out, via a Howard post-up or a dribble-drive. After that, a shot went up or the ball went back out, then moved side-to-side until an open look presented itself.

This type of performance shouldn’t surprise us too much. Going back to last year the Magic have been criminally underrated. They were viewed as interlopers last spring, usurping the Cavaliers’ appointed place in the anticipated “Most Valuable Puppets” finals between Kobe and Lebron. And they did so without a typical superstar -- sure, dominating doesn’t really begin to describe Dwight Howard’s defensive impact, but he’s, at least not yet, the type of offensive presence that usually captures the imagination. Instead, they relied on a bevy of three-point shooters and Turkoglu as an unconventional point-forward to create mismatches and bombard their way to the Finals.

With the Cavs bolstering their squad with Antawn Jamison and Shaq, the assumption has been that the East is LeBron’s to lose this time around. That’s the way the script is supposed to go. Sure, the Magic made their own move, picking up Vince Carter on the cheap and jettisoning Hedo Turkoglu, but last season was a fluke...right? Not really. Despite finishing two games behind the Cavs, the Magic boasted the top point differential in the league, which is usually a better predictor of future success than won-lost record -- as you can ask the Mavs, whose gaudy record belied an iffy point-differential mark.

Even more disconcerting for the Magic’s opponents is the fact that Stan Van Gundy’s team hadn’t even played well prior to Game 1 against the Hawks...and they were still winning. Dwight Howard was perpetually in foul trouble in their opening round matchup against the Bobcats, while Vince Carter struggled as well, and yet they still swept the stifling ‘Cats. That’s what the league’s stingiest defense will do for you. And a healthy Jameer Nelson.

With LeBron’s elbow apparently a continuing concern and the Lakers entertaining their own question marks (is Kobe healthy enough, will they maintain their focus, etc.), it’s time to acknowledge that the real favorites this year are coached by Stan Van Gundy. And this time, even Pat Riley can’t take a championship away from him.