General

Ubaldo Jimenez is Both Really Good and Not As Good As You Think

Jun 12, 2010, 5:15 PM UTC

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â†µLostâ†µin the hubbub over Stephen Strasburg’s phenomenal debut wasâ†µthe idea that though Strasburg’s really, really good, Ubaldo Jimenez is inâ†µanother stratosphere. Let me explain why he is -- and why he isn’t.
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â†µJimenezâ†µpitchedâ†µa rain-shortened “complete game” to get his 12th win. And it wasâ†µhis worst outing of the year: Three earned runs, five walks, and the worstâ†µpercentage of strikes (just 53.7 percent; his next worst is 56.2 percent) onâ†µhis season, all of that coming over just six innings. Even his bad days areâ†µpretty good.
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â†µJimenezâ†µleads the majors in wins, ERA, and opposing batting average, at an absurd .178.â†µThrough 13 starts, he’s given up fewer earned runs than Zack Greinke didâ†µthrough that many to begin last year, and has a sub-2.00 ERA at Coors Field,â†µtoo. He’s also thrownâ†µthis pitch, and aâ†µno-hitter. He’s been awesome.
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â†µButâ†µhe only ranks third among MLB pitchers inâ†µWins Above Replacement, behind Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano, and he’sâ†µbeen the beneficiary of some truly fantastic luck so far.
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His strand rate-the percentage ofâ†µbaserunners he allows to score-is a ridiculous 90.8 percent. He boasted aâ†µminuscule 1.8 percent fly ball/home run rate a week ago; after homers inâ†µeach of his last two starts, that percentage has soared ... to 4.0 percent. Hisâ†µBatting Average on Balls in Play is an anemic .232, well under his career .282â†µrate.
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â†µAllâ†µof those stats are usually more luck-based than skill-based, and point to Jimenezâ†µbeing buoyed by fortune and defense. His Fielding Independent Pitching is muchâ†µless impressive than his gaudy ERA, tellingly: Jimenez’ 2.92 mark places himâ†µeighth in the majors, behind lesser-regarded talents like Josh Johnson and Philâ†µHughes.
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â†µBasically,â†µJimenez is having a dream season so far, and getting aided by things he can’tâ†µcontrol breaking his way. His good fortune could continue, but it also mightâ†µwell turn for the worse towards the middle of the year, and his massive leadsâ†µin ERA and wins could evaporate in kind.
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â†µIfâ†µvoting were held today, Jimenez would likely win the NL Cy Young, edgingâ†µHalladay. But time may prove to be his toughest foe this year, and he couldâ†µeasily go from being the consensus best pitcher in baseball to a Cy also-ran.
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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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