World Cup 2010 Group H Preview, Predictions: Spain, And A Three-Way Fight For Second

Tournament co-favorites Spain will play a part in determining which team moves along with them into the Round of 16, though they are unlikely to drop points in the group. Should they do so, the one point earned against them could identify the other nation that makes it out of group play. If Spain does get to nine point, the goal difference in their individual matches could decide which of the group remaining, evenly-matched teams face Brazil in the next round.

Honduras versus Chile, Nelspruit, 7:00 a.m. Eastern, ESPN

Chile’s a darling team for many because they have one of the few coaches who is willing to buck convention and play an irregular formation. Marcelo Bielsa has carried over his 3-3-1-3 from his days of coaching Argentina and has engendered hopes of being an attack-minded team, something this tournament currently lacks. But more than providing something different, Chile and Bielsa garners attention because they accept risk in a way all of us wish would could do more often in our daily lives. Bielsa stares at the uncertainties of attacking soccer and accepts them, knowing that he will incur costs, but believing those costs will eventually be overwhelmed by benefits.

Now, having qualified for South Africa and won hearts, Bielsa is threatening to scuttle the 3-3-1-3. He has been fooling around with a four-man back, though against Honduras, can be expected to say with what got Chile here.

Part of what got Chile here, center forward Humberto Suazo, may not be available, dealing with a thigh injury. This will put more pressure on right win Alexis Sanchez, the team’s other main goal scorer. Chile may also need to find goals from left wing Mark Gonzalez or attacking midfielder Matias Fernandez.

How Honduras deals with a player like Fernandez, key to Chile’s attack as he occupies the level behind the three lead attackers, could turn the match. If a player like Wilson Palacios is healthy, he can give Fernandez fits and potentially choke the Chile supply. At that point it will be incumbent on a player like Jean Beausejour to pick-up the slack. Regardless, once Honduras wins their midfield challenges, they need Palacios and Amado Guevara to quickly get them into attack, before Chile can recover and augment their numerical disadvantage at the back.

Switzerland is a resourceful side with talented players, but they lack the quality needed to compete at the levels Spain will be playing. Philippe Senderos and Stephane Grichting are fine defenders, but are they the pair to deal with David Villa? Gokhan Inler is a strong presence in central midfield, but he will be pressed to keep-up with Xavi Hernández and Andrés Iniesta, let alone win battles against them. Benjamin Huggel is unlikely to do much better.

There is little in Ottmar Hitzfeld’s side to make you think they can do what a sea of European sides have been unable to do over the last three years, when Spain’s only lost came to a CONCACAF team. Even though Fernando Torres looks to start this match on the bench, still recovering from knee surgery, Spain should win comfortably.

Though almost all the matches to date in this year’s tournament have been tight, I think Spain is more Germany than Brazil or the Netherlands, posting a Spain 3, Switzerland 0 result.

Switzerland has a number of players whose names are recognizable to club football aficionados, but more recognizable than Alexander Frei, Blaise Nfuko, Tranquillo Barnetta, and Veron Behrami is coach Ottmer Hitzfeld, the two-time UEFA Champions League winner who always manages to deploy a highly organized Swiss team. While organized is most often used to describe a team that maintains a good formation shape, here it also refers to the ability to carry out an offensive approach. Hitzfeld always seems to have Switzerland prepared to take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes, hence winning their qualifying group.

This organization lends itself to playing Chile, whose approach embraces its weaknesses. To this point, those risks have paid off for Chile, as the pressure they’ve applied to their opponents has led to their success. But if Hitzfeld’s best traits come through when Switzerland plays Chile, he will have his team set to have Chile pay for their approach. He will be able to use the likes of Barnetta and Behrami to quickly transition into attack, where the Switz have the finishing talent to efficiently finish chances they create.

The likes of Gary Medel, Gonzalo Jara and Waldo Ponde will be stressed in the Chilean defense, and while strong performances from them can always neutralize any tactical advantage Hitzfeld derives, the Switz look situated for an entertaining Switzerland 2, Chile 1 result.

As was the case against Switzerland, Spain just has too much for Honduras, but the physical presence of players like Palacios, Hendry Thomas, and Maynor Figueroa can make this frustrating for Spain. Regardless, there isn’t the quality, particularly in goal and along the back for Honduras. If Torres is healthy and able to exploit that lack of quality, this could be a very lopsided affair, but given the talent gap, Vincente del Bosque need not test his start striker.

If this game is called tight by the referee, the score could be 4-0, but referees tend to let matches even themselves out when one team is so much more adept than the other, and after Spain takes a lead, the calls may stop coming. Spain 2, Honduras 0 will look like a respectable result, but the Spaniards could hold close to seventy percent of the possession while keeping the Hondurans to only a couple of shots on goal.

At this point, Spain can get through with a draw, but looking at their record over the past three years, the aren’t apt to settle for draws, even in matches that don’t matter. That’s less of a result of their taking all their matches so seriously than having so much talent that their second XI is far better than the starters of other nations. If Vincente del Bosque rotates players for the last match of group play, we could still see the likes of Javi Martinez, Xabi Alonso, Pepe Reina, Raul Albiol, Jesus Navas and Pedro Rodriguez.

That team is still a little stronger than Chile, who could still get through with a loss, provided Honduras beats Switzerland. A key to advancing will be goal difference, and this is where Chile derives an advantage from playing Spain last. Even if Spain played all their starters, there would be less motivation to play Chile than there was to play Switzerland. If Spain gets a Spain 2, Chile 1 result, they still get their nine points, but being held to a +1 difference could send Chile through.

But that depends on ...

Honduras is on zero points coming into this match yet still has a chance to go through. Their goal difference against Spain could be better than Switzerland’s (in this scenario, it is, by one), which gives them a chance to advance should they beat the Switz.

Though Honduras is prone to errors at the back, there is no inherent problem with their approach. Unlike Chile, where Switzerland will be able to organize an approach pre-match and exploit the Chileans, Switzerland will have to attack and force mistakes. When those mistakes come, Switzerland has the players to take advantage of them, but Honduras also has the ability to win individual, physical battles.

The ability to win those battles will depend on the health of David Sauzo and Wilson Palacios. Sauzo never seems healthy, but particularly at a point in the tournament where 36-year-old Carlos Pávon will be playing his third match in ten days, Sauzo will have to be ready. If he is, he has the speed and skill to trouble the Swiss defenders.

Honduras should be able to win the midfield and provide Pavón and Suazo with enough opportunities to get three points, with a Honduras 2, Switzerland 1 win. However, because of the goal difference advantage held by the Chileans, Hondruas and Switzerland go home.