We enter Tuesday with two teams having clinches places in the knockout stage, two teams having been mathematically eliminated. Today in World Cup 2010, mathematically starts to become an antiquated distinction, as four teams will be eliminated with another four confirming knockout round spots.
World Cup 2010 Day 12 Schedule, Preview, Predictions: Eight Team Enter, Four Teams Leave
Technically, it’s the third match of group play. Practically, the knockout stage has begun at World Cup 2010, where four teams will be eliminated on Tuesday.
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For the next four days, the schedule shifts to four matches per day in two time slots. with each group’s remaining two matches kicking-off simultaneously.
The schedule for Tuesday's action in South Africa:
Where They Stand: Mexico and Uruguay are tied at the top of Group A, each having four points. Uruguay is technically ahead on goal difference (+3, compared to Mexico's +2). Both teams will go through with a draw, which has led to mild speculation of a gentlemen's agreement - a implicit deal where the teams will play for a draw. That is unlikely in this case. If Mexico settles for a draw, they play Argentina in the next round. The winner of the group will play Group B's second place team, potentially South Korea.
Player(s) To Watch, Mexico: Javier Hernandez scored Mexico's first goal in their 2-0 win over France. Since then, there has been speculation that he will be inserted into the starting lineup for Guillermo France. If Javier Aguirre believes Hernandez is the better goal scorer, ninety minutes of the 21-year-old Manchester United striker may be needed, as Uruguay has yet to allow a goal in the tournament.
Player(s) To Watch, Uruguay: Diego Godín is having a strong tournament in central defense, especially considering some struggles from his partner, captain Diego Lugano. Where a draw will give Uruguay the group, there may be a point where Oscar Tábarez decides to pull back and protect an even score. That point may be the opening kick-off, as it was against France, a match where Godín may have been Uruguay’s most important player.
Prediction: Mexico has enough skill to eventually break down Uruguay. The question is whether they can also keep Diego Forlán from dominating this match. I think Rafa Marquez will help cut-off the supply to Forlán, which will help get a Mexico 2, Uruguay 1 result.
France versus South Africa, Bloemfontein, 10:00 a.m. Eastern, ESPN2
Where They Stand: Both teams have one point, those France is in slightly better position, sitting with a -2 goal difference compared to South Africa’s -3. Both teams need help to advance. A lop-sided result in either direction in the Mexico-Uruguay match will open the door for one other these times to sneak into the knockout stage.
Player(s) To Watch, France: Who knows. After this weekend's problems - where the players refused to train in support of exiled teammate Nicolas Anelka - coach Raymond Domenech has been unable to confirm whether all of his players will be willing to suit-up. It's impossible to say who will be playing for France.
Player(s) To Watch, South Africa: Striker Katlego Mphela has had his chances and has yet to convert. For a team that has only one goal through 180 minutes, Mphela will need to find his touch on the final ball if Bafana Bafana are to get a win in this tournament. If not him, the Carlos Alberto Parriera needs to put Bernard Parker in the lineup.
Prediction: No matter who France puts out, you could see motivation being an issue. You could also see these circumstances snowballing such that South Africa could make up the goal difference needed to make the knockout stage. A South Africa 2, France 0 result is unlikely to be enough, but it would be a good step for the home nation: getting a win in the last match of their tournament.
Argentina versus Greece, Polokwane, 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Where They Stand: Argentina is on top of Group B with six points and a goal difference of +4, five better than second place South Korea. Greece, even on points with South Korea, also has a chance to go, though Greece may need a big win over Argentina to advance.
Player(s) To Watch, Argentina: Diego Maradona has said he will make wholesale changes to his lineup. First indication was we would see eight new faces. Of the players coming in Sergio Agüero, a lightning quick supporting striker who plays for Atlético Madrid, and Javier Pastore, the playmaker from Palermo, will be most entertaining, with Champions League hero Diego Milito at central striker to benefit from their work.
Player(s) To Watch, Greece: Otto Rehhagal will need a big day from Theofanis Gekas. Greece needs more than a win. They need to win comfortably, which means goals, and Gekas is the only man in the team that seems to have the potential for an outburst. Gekas scored four goals in out qualifying match against Latvia in October. Perhaps Rehhagal could hypnotize Gekas into believing the Argentines were Latvians?
Prediction: Even with their back-ups playing, Argentina will be formidable. You would think that a level of cohesion and familiarity would be needed to break down this Greece team, but Greece has also shown themselves surprisingly vulnerable on set pieces. There are enough cracks in the Greek defense to see an Argentina 2, Greece 1 result where the Greeks are deflated slightly in the 70th minute at the prospect of still needing two goals.
South Korea versus Nigeria, Durban, 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN2
Where They Stand: South Korea sits second place with three points and a -1 goal difference, coming off a 4-1 loss to Argentina. Nigeria has yet to register a point but is not in as back a place as you would think. With a -2 goal difference, a win over South Korea and a Greece loss to Argentina will get Nigeria into the knockout stage.
Player(s) To Watch, South Korea: Solving Nigeria can be easy if you have strong midfield play, but to this point Ki Song-Yong has been somewhat quiet. If he has a strong game distributing from the middle-of-the-pitch, it will enable South Korea to get the ball wide and take advantage of their strengths: Park Ji-Sung and Lee Chong-Yong attacking Nigeria’s fullbacks.
Player(s) To Watch, Nigeria: With one goal in two games, Nigeria needs somebody in attack to come alive. Yakubu Aiygenbeni is not their best attacking player but he appears to be Lars Lagerback’s only consistent selection at forward. Against a South Korea defense that is prone to the occasional lapse, Yakubu is the Nigerian who will have to be opportunistic enough to take advantage. Without a good game from him, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Nigeria wins.
Prediction: South Korea has played better than the Nigerians thus far, but Nigeria has had to face Argentina then play a match a man down. We don’t know what we’re going to get from the Super Eagles, so while a South Korea 2, Nigeria 0 score would build on what we saw in the first two matches, there are reasons to think those matches tell us little about Nigeria.
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