Heyward-Strasburg I Scuttled by Thumb Injury: Who’s Baseball’s Best Rookie Now?
Tonight, the Braves host the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg, in a matchup I’ve been anticipating for almost month because I wanted to see rookie-on-rookie brilliance. Alas, Jason Heyward, the Braves’ rookie extraordinaire, won’t be playing in tonight’s game, as it sounds like a sore thumb that has kept him out of action since Friday will sideline him again. (UPDATE: The Braves placed Heyward on the DL Monday night.) Heyward sounds chagrined to be missing Strasburg, but he’s more concerned about getting healthy:
⇥“It would be fun, and it would be awesome,” Heyward said. “But that would be something, to go out there and play and then not be ready to go back out there and play again. I don’t see this like I’m sitting out because of an injury.⇥⇥⇥⇥“I look at it like I’m sitting out to take care of it now, so that I don’t have to worry about it later.”⇥⇥⇥
But here’s a twist: Heyward-Strasburg might not be the best possible matchup of two rookies from this year. It’s been a sterling crop of major league newcomers, at least at the highest heights, and picking the best one is hard.Heyward: The Braves’ slugging outfielder started much stronger than he’s been playing lately. In April, he clubbed six homers, had 19 RBI, and posted a .384 Weighted On Base Average; in May, he had almost as much pop and production (four homers, 19 RBI), but also improved his patience (10 Ks to 16 walks for the month) and had a ridiculous triple-slash (.337/.453/.638) and wOBA (.456) as a result. June has been far less kind: Heyward’s got 32 strikeouts this month, just four extra-base hits and only one homer, and his batting average (.181) is about as bad as his wOBA (.245). Basically, Heyward’s been good, great (his wOBA in May is better than Albert Pujols’ in any month this season), and awful. Hopefully, for Braves fans, the recent nose-dive has everything to do with his injury, and he comes back as close to his May form as possible. Season: .261/.366/.455, 11 HRs, 45 RBI, .360 wOBA, 1.8 Wins Above Replacement.
Strasburg: Strasburg has pitched 25.1 innings, faced 100 batters, and struck out 41 of them. He's issued as many walks—five—as he's given up earned runs. Hitters have a sky-high (and unsustainable) .358 Batting Average on Balls In Play against him and take a whopping 12.5% of his fly balls deep: that, of course, is what happens when only 59% of plate appearances against a pitcher don't end in strikeouts, and the pitcher concedes just 16 fly balls in four starts. Strasburg isn't necessarily the best pitcher in baseball just yet, but he's not far off in his very small sample size. Should he continue this pace, it will be hard for the Nats' ace not to get Cy Young consideration, and the NL Rookie of the Year title might be a formality. Season: 2-1, 1.78 ERA, 1.51 Fielding Independent Pitching, 41 Ks, 14.57 K/9, 1.2 WAR.
Brennan Boesch: The Tigers’ sensational rookie hasn’t come close to a wall in his 216 plate appearances. His triple-slash is phenomenal (.338/.389/.621) and he leads all rookies in homers (12) and extra-base hits. The problem, of course, is that he hasn’t hit a wall yet, and his extraordinary BABIP (.374) and pedestrian walk rate (7.4%) suggest he’s due for a bit of regression when some of the hits stop falling. And it certainly hasn’t hurt to hit behind Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera. Boesch is probably the front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year, but he’s yet to deal with anything approaching a slump. Season: .338/.389/.621, 12 HRs, 46 RBI, .432 wOBA, 2.1 WAR.
Carlos Santana: The Indians’ catching superprospect hasn’t had a lot of time to make his mark on the majors (60 PAs), but he’s been very impressive over that small sample size. Four homers, a .450 OBP, an insane .396 Isolated Power, and a massive .490 wOBA all catch the eye. But he’s done this all for a team that has a great shot at finishing 40 or more games below .500, and he might already be the club’s best hitter, which could mean he sees fewer and fewer pitches to hit as the season wears on. Season: .333/.450/.729, four HRs, 14 RBI, .490 wOBA, 1.2 WAR.
Mike Leake: Leake’s been one of the most important reasons the Reds have surprised. He’s got a 2.92 ERA through 14 starts, is stingy with homers (0.71 HR/9) and walks (36 in 89.1 IP), and has generally been far more valuable than a back-end starter should be. (Also: Aroldis who?) Then again, he’s also a rookie pitcher managed by Dusty Baker, his FIP is more than 1.00 greater than his ERA, and his stuff isn’t quite on par with, say, Strasburg. He’ll be good for years to come, but it’s hard to see Leake as an ace if his barely sub-3.00 ERA is deceptive. Season: 5-1, 2.92 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 58 Ks, 5.84 K/9, 1.3 WAR.
Jaime Garcia: And, after all, Leake isn’t the best rookie starter in his own division. Garcia’s had a rough June, with more earned runs given up (13) than in April and May combined (nine), but that’s partly because he’s stranding fewer runners, which is probably mostly regression to the norm. He’s still been miserly with homers (0.41 HR/9) and effective as a punchout pitcher (7.21 K/9), and though he’s not quite as good as his ERA would indicate, he’s probably between Leake and Strasburg on the NL rookie pitcher pecking order. Season: 7-4, 2.27 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 70 Ks, 7.21 K/9, 1.7 WAR.
As for handicapping races: Heyward’s slightly ahead of Strasburg in the NL, but will be passed shortly, and it’s Boesch’s race to lose in the AL. And Strasburg will, of course, be looked on as baseball’s best rookie at season’s end.
Anyone I missed? (I suspect Mets fans might know someone.) Tell me in the comments.
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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.
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