Premature Prognostication! Predicting Future Of NFL’s Undefeated, Winless Teams

Can anyone figure out Vince Young? I mean, really.

We’re in the fifth year of VY’s career as Titans starter, and for every moment like Week 1, where he methodically dissected Oakland and looked calm and collected throughout, there’s a game like Sunday’s, when he looked overmatched against Pittsburgh, repeatedly shooting the Titans in the foot, until finally getting pulled.

Who is Vince Young? He’s like the NFL’s parity, personified. Where and when he succeeds, it makes no sense. You may have better luck predicting where he’ll fail, but even then, it’s pretty much a crapshoot. Sometimes he takes the field and looks like a guy with all the right intangibles, x-factor athleticism, and just enough skill as a passer to keep the defense honest. Other times, he looks like a team’s worst nightmare: just good enough to keep you intrigued, just bad enough to complete kill any chance you have at victory.

There may well be some code to all this, but if the Vince Young Code exists, we haven’t figured it out yet. I figured Vince would step up against Pittsburgh, marking his arrival this season, and solidifying Tennessee as a contender. Instead, Tennessee collapsed thanks in large part to Young’s incompetence. One step forward, two steps back, and you have no idea what’s going to happen next; that’s Vince Young.

I bring it up because right now, depending on how much you trust statistics, we should be able to glean some insight into what might transpire for the rest of the season. Since 1990, 107 of 167 NFL teams have made the playoffs after starting 2-0. That comes to a solid 64%. Even more compelling, only 22 of the 169 teams that have started 0-2 have gone on to salvage their season.

Nobody’s saying that these statistics are fool-proof, but like with Vince Young, at this point, all we can do is take an educated guess at how the rest of this season might play out. If 64% of the teams sitting at 2-0 are going to make the playoffs, and 87% of the 0-2 teams are going to miss out, we can at least take a shot at figuring out who’ll make it this year, and who’s already out of it. Here are the teams in play here...

The Winners: statistically speaking, four or five of these teams will make the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins — 2-0 (wins at Buffalo, at Minnesota)

Pittsburgh Steelers — 2-0 (wins vs. Atlanta, at Tennessee)

Houston Texans — 2-0 (wins vs. Indianapolis, at Washington)

Kansas City Chiefs — 2-0 (wins vs. San Diego, at Cleveland)

Chicago Bears — 2-0 (wins vs. Detroit, at Dallas)

Green Bay Packers — 2-0 (wins at Philadelphia, vs. Buffalo)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 2-0 (wins vs. Cleveland, at Buffalo)

New Orleans Saints — 2-0 (wins vs. Minnesota, at San Francisco)

The Losers: statistically speaking, one of these teams will make the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers — 0-2 (at New York, vs. Tampa Bay)

Buffalo Bills — 0-2 (vs Miami, at Green Bay)

Cleveland Browns — 0-2 (at Tampa Bay, vs. Kansas City)

Minnesota Vikings — 0-2 (at New Orleans, vs. Miami)

Dallas Cowboys — 0-2 (at Washington, vs. Chicago)

Detroit Lions — 0-2 (at Chicago, vs. Philadelphia)

St. Louis — 0-2 (vs. Arizona, at Oakland)

San Francisco — 0-2 (at Seattle, vs. New Orleans)

Right now, it’s still a guessing game with most of these teams. We know the Packers have looked good, and we know the Rams and Bills have looked pretty awful. But in between those two extremes, there’s plenty of room for conjecture. We have no clue who they really are. Like rooting for Vince Young at quarterback, you say?

I agree. Like rooting for Vince Young at quarterback. There’s always chance that what we’ve seen has been misleading, and we’re about to get blindsided by either a ferocious collapse or a heroic recovery. So let’s take a shot at this guessing game. Will these teams be Happy Vince Young going forward, or Sad Vince Young? We begin with the winners...

MIAMI DOLPHINS Beating Buffalo in Week 1 was one thing. Trent Edwards’ performance in that one prompted one of my friends to text me, “Is Trent Edwards the worst quarterback in the world?” But then to stroll into Minnesota and beat the crap out of Brett Favre and the Vikings?

Suddenly, we all have to take the Miami Dolphins seriously. They’re a textbook case of a team that has a comeback year (‘08), then a sophomore slump (‘09), and is finally ready to contend (‘10). Here’s the thing, though: they play in a brutal division, and have one of the toughest schedules in the league. Also, they’ve only scored two offensive touchdowns in two games.

With games looming at home against the Jets and Patriots and then on the road against Green Bay, we’re going to find out over the next three weeks whether Miami’s a legit contender in the AFC. For now, though, the lack of scoring and the murderous schedule has me skeptical. Verdict: Sad Vince for now ... But maybe Happy Vince if they surprise us the next month.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS Well first of all, let’s give credit where credit’s due. The Pittsburgh Steelers created the scale here by bringing out Sad Vince again this weekend. Their defense pretty much embarrassed VY from start to finish, leading to a win that almost nobody saw coming.

To step back for a moment... In Week 1, they won an ugly game with an Atlanta team that looked great a week later. Week 2, they won an ugly game against a Tennessee team that looked great a week earlier, shutting down the best running back on earth and overwhelming Vince Young in the process. And they’re doing it all without Ben Roethlisberger, who returns after the next two games.

We’re just scratching the surface here, basically. Even without a functional offense, Pittsburgh’s been good enough to beat two good teams. When they get Roethlisberger back? We’re probably talking about a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Easy Verdict: Happy Vince, with the potential to become Ecstatic Vince once Ben gets back.

HOUSTON TEXANS Every year, we hear that Houston is ready for a breakthrough season. We hear it so often that even saying, “Every year, we hear...” has become annoying. Not only is it cliche to call the Texans a breakthrough team, but now it’s cliche to call the original cliche a cliche.

Goddamnit, we can’t handle any more of this meta-cliche back-and-forth.

If the Texans don’t wind up winning this year, they should be forced to forfeit next season. And since there’s going to be a strike next season, we’re talking about 2012, of course. Anyway...

Verdict: Happy Vince, because they’re finally good this year. I guess. We hope.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS The Chiefs have quietly been one of the league’s most truly hapless franchises the past few years. I mean, the Herman Edwards era is only a year old. Even a modest 8-8 would have to be considered a huge success for this year’s Chiefs squad. And a 2-0 start, after winning in Cleveland on a short week, has them on the right track.

They’ve got tough games at Indy (Week 5) and at Houston (Week 6), but beyond that, almost every game on their schedule looks winnable. This doesn’t mean they’re going 14-2, of course, but 10-6? It’s possible. They’ve got enough playmakers on offense, and if the quarterback play can improve, there’s no reason the Chiefs can’t round into the NFL’s surprise playoff team this season.

Verdict: Ecstatic Vince, because this could really happen.

CHICAGO BEARS Okay, they get credit for winning on the road against a Dallas team that badly needed a victory. They get marked down because they totally should have lost Week 1 at home, surviving solely on the strength of a terrible call. Against a resurgent Lions team, but still. Against the Lions, at home, they needed a BS call to steal a victory. I’m not sold on the Bears.

The wins haven’t been that impressive—the Cowboys were begging to lose on Sunday—and Jay Cutler’s a ticking time bomb. You don’t know exactly when he’s going self-combust and single-handedly lose a month’s worth of games for Chicago, but it’s coming. Jay Cutler is a little like Vince Young, except nobody ever talks themselves into Jay Cutler anymore, because he’s so insufferable, nobody wants to believe he might one day succeed. And he won’t. Verdict: Sad Vince, because... Tough division, misleading first two weeks, and Cutler.

GREEN BAY PACKERS So far, the Packers have made it look easy. Michael Vick made them sweat in the second half of their Week 1 game with Philly, but otherwise, they’re not only looking like a legit playoff team, but the type of group that could keep this run going all season. 13-3 sounds about right.

They’re the feel good team winning without Favre, and everyone loves them. Life is good if you’re a Packers fan right now. Better than ever, really. Verdict: All-American Vince.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS They’re 2-0 after beating two teams that seemed determined to lose. Minnesota looked awful in New Orleans Week 1, and the 49ers fumbled like 18 teams last night. So we’re left asking: Is New Orleans good, or have their opponents been bad?

In the first two weeks, it’s been the latter. But that doesn’t mean the Saints aren’t good, and they’ve still got most of the ingredients back from last year’s Super Bowl run. Reggie Bush is hurt now, so that could throw a wrench in their plans, but in the end, this article’s about teams that will or won’t make the playoffs. The Saints will make the playoffs. Beyond that, who knows? But that’s a whole other conversation.

Verdict: Happy Vince, though maybe not Ecstatic Vince once the playoffs start.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS /checks schedule.

//re-checks schedule.

///triple-checks.

Yep, they’re really 2-0. Beat the Browns and the Panthers. And nope, they’re not going anywhere.

Verdict: Sad Vince, although they get credit for exposing the hapless Panthers. Speaking of which...

CAROLINA PANTHERS One day, there will be a Fake Tweets where Jimmy Clausen just tweets his favorite Entourage lines (#longliveDrama!), talks about his favorite movie (2 Fast 2 Furious, obvs), quotes Black Eyed Peas lyrics, and talks about how “totally DTF” Megan Fox is. Until then... Meet the new starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers!

Now, the Panthers should be a good team, in theory, but with Clausen starting, there’s no way this team makes the playoffs. Not exactly a bold prediction, I know, but just putting it on the record. He’s looked alright so far, but game-to-game, it’s hard to believe he’ll keep things together long enough for Carolina to become a real threat, especially coming out of the NFC South. But you know this. So while we’re here, let’s narrow our focus to three more 0-2 teams.

The Panthers, Rams, Bills, Lions and Browns are all 0-2 and dead in the water at this point. We’re not writing them off because they lost two games, but how they lost those two games. They’re Concussed Vince.

So with the dregs out of the way, let’s focus on the final three teams at 0-2.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS As mentioned earlier, the Vikings had a suicide mission in Week 1. Playing in New Orleans, after the Super Bowl celebration, on Thursday night, with a hurt quarterback... Etc. You couldn’t have conceived of a more nightmarish scenario for Brad Childress and company. That being said...

Now, Minnesota has tons of pressure coming into a matchup with a plucky Detroit team in Week 3. After that, they’ll get a bye week, and then run the following gauntlet: @NYJ, vs. DAL, @GB, and @NE. Put it this way: a team like the Vikings doesn’t need a degree of difficulty.

With a 40 year-old injured quarterback, a depleted core of skill players, and a shaky coaching staff, there’s already plenty of factors working against them. Now, instead of 1-1 with a chance to hit their bye week at 2-1, they’re fighting for a win this weekend, and then hoping to come through their October gauntlet at .500. Hoping.

It could get ugly though. If the Vikings lose a few more games early, the season could be over before it even begins. Favre will face heavy criticism for killing their chances, and in turn, he’ll probably be mentally checked out by November. Adrian Peterson will spend the season careening into 8-man fronts without Chester Taylor to back him up. Brad Childress will be on the hot seat. And the Vikings will still be faced with one of the tougher schedules in the NFL.

All that might not happen, but again... only one team can make it, and the Vikings have a lot of factors working against them. It’s not looking good. Verdict: SAD VINCE.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS For all the preseason promise afforded by the 49ers (and their terrible, terrible division), the Niners still have Alex Smith at quarterback and Mike Singletary at Head Coach. We’ll deal with Smith first.

The problem with Alex Smith is, even when he’s not killing the 49ers, he’s not really a “weapon” for San Francisco. Sure, he may lead an occasional touchdown drive like he did in the waning moments of Monday night’s loss, but he’s not going to single-handedly win games for the 49ers. A significant drawback, considering he absolutely will single-handedly lose games for San Francisco. So, while the 49ers certainly have the best opportunity to reclaim a playoff spot in the NFC West, it’s just asking too much of Alex Smith.

That, and at some point, Mike Singletary’s going to be accountable for the disarray among that group. Monday night’s game was just horrendous. Burned timeouts, bonehead fumbles, leaving the Saints enough time to drive down the field for a winning field goal—he can’t control all of these things, but when all of those things are happening, the blame falls on the coaching staff. And since Singletary’s never really proven he can win, it’s not as if he deserves the benefit of the doubt there. The 49ers look awful. There’s a decent chance that they’ll recover and win the NFC West, but there’s a better chance that this season spirals into disaster, cementing Alex Smith’s legacy as a bust, and costing Singletary his job in the process. Verdict: SAD VINCE.

DALLAS COWBOYS Phase one of my plan for the Cowboys is moving along beautifully. Before the year began, I said that the best possible scenario for the Cowboys would be to come out of the gates looking awful. This would lead to a come-to-Jesus moment for Tony Romo and the offense, a coaching staff that’s forced to keep things simple and practical, and, hopefully, a late-season rally that’ll continue right on through to the Super Bowl.

And say what you want about Phase Two (come to Jesus moment) and Phase Three (Super Bowl!), but GOOD LORD. The Cowboys sure have looked awful, huh? Hooray for Phase One!

But here’s why they can still recover...

Parity. For the past few years, the Cowboys have plateaued in September and October, only to come undone by the time the playoffs arrive. This year it’ll be the inverse. They’re a mess right now, but the ingredients are there to make a run, just like they have been for the past few seasons. Isn’t that how the NFL works? When you least expect something...
It won’t be easy, and it’s not a foregone conclusion. But let’s go back to the statistics. From the group of 2-0 teams, approximately 4.5 teams will make the playoffs. We’ve got the Packers, Saints, Texans, Steelers as the four, and the Chiefs as a possible fifth. In this second group, only one team can make it.

And if you’re asking me to choose between Brett Favre hobbling around for Minnesota, Alex Smith throwing wobbling INTs in San Francisco, or Tony Romo and the Cowboys cobbling together some sort of coherent offense, I’m choosing Dallas. Is this because I’m a blatant homer who’s not ready to write of 2010 as a lost casue? Maybe.

But still, you can’t fix a team built around an overrated, injury-prone quarterback. You can’t fix a team built around an overmatched, mistake-prone quarterback. But Dallas? Tony Romo’s still a pretty great quarterback, and even at 0-2, there’s plenty of room for them to figure things out in time for the playoffs. Just like Vince Young, who seems to succeed only when everyone counts him out, maybe this is the only way Dallas could ever take the next step.

After all, if Vince has taught us anything, it’s that we just never really know...