The 2011 NFL Draft begins Thursday night, and the Carolina Panthers will likely take Cam Newton with the number one pick. Whether that makes them “winners” or “losers” on Draft Day will be totally subjective; no expert really knows whether Cam Newton will pan out.
How To Win The NFL Draft: It’s A Science, Not An Art
The NFL Draft begins at 8 p.m. in New York City on Thursday, and even in the middle of lockout chaos, it’ll be a spectacle unlike anything else in sports. But beyond the bright lights, there’s more science to it than you think. Get ready with an all-draft version of Talking Points.
So, since there’s no objective way to grade superstars like Newton before they ever take a snap, people assume that there’s no way objective way to grade teams that draft him. That’s not quite right, though.
Just look at the Panthers. After they pick first, they won’t another pick until the third round. New England owns their second round pick thanks to a trade in last year’s NFL Draft--the Panthers used their 2011 second rounder to trade into the 2010 third round, where they reached and took Armanti Edwards. In other words, they lost the first pick of the 2011 second round for a player that probably would have fallen to them in the 2010 fourth round, anyway.
It may be a little confusing, but it’s also a perfect example of how teams win or lose the NFL Draft each year. There’s a reason teams like the Patriots always walk away with high grades, while teams like Carolina and Jacksonville get stuck rolling the dice every year.
Teams get so caught up in the art of scouting they forget the draft is more simple. Only fools bet big on sleepers like Armanti Edwards or some superstar in the first round. The smart teams exploit their desperation. I wrote about all this last year explaining the science of the NFL Draft:
Think about the first round. How often do teams sacrifice valuable draft picks trading up to draft a "superstar," and then that player actually turns out to be a superstar? And even if the player does turn into a superstar, how often do you win a Super Bowl with him? Not very often. Eli Manning has worked out for the Giants, but for every Eli, there are four or five examples of guys that were brought in with sky-high price tags and ultimately failed. To wit:
- Ricky Williams to the Saints in exchange for eight draft choices to the Redskins, one of which became LB Lavar Arrington (no. 3 overall), and another of which was used to acquire Champ Bailey in a draft-day trade.
- The Chargers trading up to draft Ryan Leaf, forfeiting a first round pick the next year that became WR David Boston. In other words, the Chargers used TWO first-round picks on Ryan Leaf.
- Michael Vick to the Falcons in exchange for a draft pick that became Ladanian Tomlinson, and led the Chargers to "settle" for Drew Brees in the 2nd round.
- Cleveland trades a 2nd round pick (that became Kevin Kolb) and a 1st round pick the following year (that became Felix Jones) for Brady Quinn. (They would later trade Quinn for a fullback and a sixth round pick.)
- The ultimate lesson: Herschel Walker to the Vikings in exchange for a bevy of draft picks that ultimately helped the Cowboys land the following players: RB Emmitt Smith, DT Russel Maryland, SS Darren Woodson, CB Kevin Smith, and CB Clayton Holmes. Oof.
All of it’s something to keep in mind before tonight’s NFL Draft. As I explained in 2010, “Picking the right players is still important, but with a hundred different variables determining a guy’s success in the pros, nobody can get ‘em right all the time. One variable you can control? Having the most chances at success.” Plenty of people will say it comes down to luck; but the draft’s like poker.
If you play the game the right way, winning isn’t luck.
With that in mind, ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL FOOTBALL-RELATED ACTIVITY HOSTED BY ROGER GOODELL? Let’s get into an all-draft version of Talking Points.
Speaking Of Which... The Evolution Of The NFL Draft. It never stops being amazing that the NFL has managed to turn what's basically an auction of college kids into one of the biggest spectacles in sports. It never stops being ridiculous/hilarious/bizarre.
Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden had a nice look on the draft phenomenon back in 2007:
This year fans have congregated by the millions on the Internet, tirelessly debating mock drafts ... In the meantime prospects spend weeks tuning up for the scouting combine, on-campus pro days and individual workouts. On Saturday and Sunday, ESPN will provide 18 hours of live draft coverage, pulling in ratings that dwarf regular-season college basketball. Fans in game jerseys and face paint will swarm into Radio City Music Hall to cheer or chide each pick. In short, an entire culture has grown in support of an event that resembles sweeps month on C-SPAN.
[...]
Looking for a deeper explanation for the draft’s appeal? Sports sociologist Jay Coakley, professor emeritus at the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs, says some fans enjoy seeing athletes in a setting in which they’re “objectified and reduced to pieces of meat ... in the same manner that some women and men watch beauty pageants. It offers a chance to be a voyeur while feeling temporarily superior to those being watched and objectified.”
It's a good read on a surreal spectacle, but he's wrong about one thing. The NFL Draft isn't some psychological anomaly among sports fans. That's part of it, maybe, but more than anything else, the success of the NFL Draft is testament to just how many football fans the league's created over the years, and how unbelievably obsessive we all are. There's no better example of football's stranglehold on all of us than the NFL Draft. We will watch anything.
Oh, And Ken Tremendous Makes An Excellent Point About That. Include partly because it’s a good point, but mostly because I wanted to write “Ken Tremendous Weighs In With Some Wisdom.”
Also, it’s sweeps week: You should all be watching Parks and Recreation at 9:30 tonight.
Will NFL Fans Boo Roger Goodell All Night Long? Because they totally should. Over at Yahoo! Sports Dan Wetzel predicts things could get ugly early:
But Thursday night, when he opens the annual draft coverage, he’ll likely get booed. Heartily. Perhaps all 32 times he attempts to announce a draft pick. ... As the face of the league, Goodell is paid to get in the line of fire and answer for the NFL’s repeated stumbles. Thursday will be a high-profile bill coming due.
And writers on the ground have confirmed the same. As CBS' Will Brinson tweets, "Just ran into 5 jersey-clad fans going to Radio City. They confirmed plans to boo Goodell heavily." ... AWESOME.
ANALYSIS! “Cam Newton Didn’t Play In A Pro-Style Offense Auburn” You will hear this a thousand different times tonight, and if you’ve watched NFL shows for any part of the past three months, you probably already have. But just for the record, that’s not really true, and according to Smart Football, Cam Newton’s no less prepared for the NFL than any other QB prospect.
ANALYSIS! Better Know A Draft Pick. KSK’s series of scouting reports is a great way to get ready for the draft. My favorite entry was a closer look at Prince Amukamara, the Nebraska corner from Zamunda.
The Awkward Photo Of The Day. Oh, memories....
Finally, A Word From Jon Gruden. If you haven’t read Spencer Hall’s NFL Draft piece from yesterday, then you should probably go check it out. If not for actual analysis, then for the pearls of wisdom dispensed from Spencer’s designated NFL pundit, talking golf club.
Speaking of Spencer Hall and inanimate experts, it’s Jon Gruden!
And over at EDSBS, Spencer imagines some more of those ESPN film-sessions with Gruden. Come for Gruden comedy, stay for Ricky Stanzi’s diagram. Likewise, courtesy of the Solid Verbal, here’s video of Jon breaking down film of Little Giants, because, why not?
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