So we've got a meme ... Whoever wins Game 4 will win the Series, because a) if the Rangers win, they'll have a commanding lead, and b) if the Tigers win Game 4, of course they'll win Game 5 because Justin Verlander's starting Game 5, and Justin Verlander never loses and it'll be almost impossible for the Rangers to win Games 6 and 7.
Yes, The Tigers Need Game 4; The Rangers Do Not
The first part of that is fine; if the Rangers take a 3-1 lead in the Series, they’re in fantastic shape.
The rest of it, though?
Verlander’s a great pitcher, of course.
His xFIP this season -- that is, his expected ERA, based on the numbers he largely controlled -- was 3.12, an excellent figure and good for second in the American League (just behind CC Sabathia).
The Rangers' Game 5 starter will be C.J. Wilson, whose xFIP was 3.41, fourth best in the league.
Verlander’s slightly better than Wilson. The Rangers’ hitters are slightly better than the Tigers’ hitters.
If you were running a simulation of this game, the score would be approximately 4-4.
Should the Tigers be favored in Game 5? Yeah, maybe by a smidgeon because of Verlander and because they’re playing at home. But Verlander is hardly unbeatable, and particularly with the Rangers’ ace on the mound.
Game 4 is important, but particularly for the Tigers. If they lose they’re practically finished; the same is not true for the Rangers.
Speaking of Game 4, it’s still scoreless entering the bottom of the third inning.
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