There’s one human on the planet who’s infallible, and that’s only if you’re a Catholic and you’re real serious about it.
Second-Guessing Hall Of Fame Manager Tony La Russa
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So please, spare me the outrage when I suggest that a baseball manager is less than perfect. Might occasionally make a mistake. Mentioning this doesn’t mean I think I know more about baseball than the manager in question; it means that occasionally managers are wrong, and occasionally I (or you) might actually be right. That’s all.
I bring all this up because while Tony La Russa had six fantastic innings Sunday night, the three innings before that didn’t go so well, and I think it’s because he made a mistake.
I don't think Chris Carpenter, who gave up four runs in three innings before getting yanked for a pinch-hitter, should have started for the Cardinals. I think Jaime García should have started, or even Kyle Lohse. But not Chris Carpenter on short rest.
La Russa actually had three viable options for Game 1: García (3.56 ERA this season), Lohse (3.39) and Edwin Jackson (3.79). All three gave up almost exactly the same number of home runs this season; García's strikeout-to-walk ratio was roughly 20 percent better than Lohse, whose ratio was just slightly better than Jackson's.
Carpenter wasn't a Game 1 option because he pitched (and pitched brilliantly) just last Wednesday night. He couldn't pitch in Game 1, Saturday. Jake Westbrook wasn't a Game 1 option because ... well, let's just say he was lucky to win a dozen games this season.
One could, given the myriad considerations that go into such things, have made a case for any of the Game 1 candidates. Most observers figured it would be García, though, because most observers figure he’s the Cardinals’ second-best starting pitcher. You may count me among the “most”.
Kyle Lohse didn’t fare well in Game 1.
La Russa’s Game 2 options were García, Jackson ... and Carpenter on short rest.
Since 2004, pitchers on short rest in the postseason have not fared well. Yeah, I know all about arbitrary endpoints and small sample sizes and I don't really believe we should expect good pitchers going forward to post 5.83 ERAs when they pitch on three days rest (though that number actually got higher Sunday, with Carpenter and Zack Greinke both getting beat up pretty good).
Still, those numbers aren’t meaningless, are they? Might not pitchers be 10 percent worse on short rest? Or even 20 percent? You take 20 percent away from Chris Carpenter, and he’s no better than Kyle Lohse or Edwin Jackson. Ah, but pitching Carpenter in Game 2 on short rest accomplished two things: it got the Cardinals’ ace pitcher a start in Game 2 and it set him up to pitch Game 5 on normal rest. If Carpenter didn’t pitch Game 2 on short rest, he would be limited to just one start (Game 3) in the Division Series.
But one of the Cardinals’ two best pitchers had to be limited to one start, why not Carpenter? His and García’s stats were virtually identical this season, except Carpenter averaged roughly seven innings per start and García only six. Which makes a real difference over the course of a season, but makes less difference in October when your bullpen’s stacked and you’ve got more off-days than usual.
Essentially, the question is this: Do you want Jaime García starting twice on full rest and Chris Carpenter once on full rest, or García once on full rest, Carpenter once on full rest and Carpenter once on short rest?
I know what this observer would want.
Ah, but this doesn’t really answer the fundamental question, which is, “Okay, but why didn’t García pitch Game 1? He was fully rested, wasn’t he?”
Yes, he was. García pitched on the 26th (and pitched well). Game 1 would have been his normal day to pitch in rotation. So why didn’t he?
Statistics. The speculation, at least, is that La Russa is holding García for Game 3, because Game 3 is back in St. Louis and García hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he’s been at home.
In a narrow sense, that’s true. In his young career, García’s got a 2.37 ERA at Busch Stadium, while on the road it’s nearly two runs higher (4.28). That’s a chasm Evel Knievel might have tried to clear in a rocket ship. But the difference in García’s fundamental performance hasn’t been nearly so wide. His strikeout rate is slightly higher at home, his walk rate slightly lower. But that huge difference in ERA is largely attributable to what’s likely just a fluke: García has given a .339 batting average on balls in play on the road, compared to .274 at home. Both of those numbers are anomalous, but particularly the road BABiP.
La Russa should know this, right? He’s got a law degree, and by all accounts is a pretty sharp fellow. Does he really think that García becomes a different pitcher every time the Cardinals get on an airplane?
It’s a funny thing. Guys like Mike Lupica and Tony La Russa like to run down numbers-crunchers, but it’s really just a matter of degree. You know La Russa loves him some numbers. He just doesn’t love your numbers, which might suggest that a relatively insignificant difference in performance over the course of two seasons isn’t enough to drive a decision that might seriously impact your postseason chances.
La Russa got away with one this time, thanks in no small part to his own acumen. Next time, he might be so lucky.
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