Thursday night, ESPN.com reported that -- according to sources -- Heath Bell and the Miami Marlins have agreed on a three-year contract for $27 million, with a vesting option for a fourth year at roughly the same money.
Heath Bell Signing With Marlins For 3 Years, $27 Million
Seems like a lot for a guy who’s going to pitch 65 innings. But that is what they get, these days, isn’t it?
I love it when my pals do stuff like this ...
The 34-year-old right-hander is coming off a 43-save season with the Padres that made him the only closer in baseball who has saved 40-plus games in each of the past three seasons.
While Bell's strikeout rate declined in 2011, from 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010 to 7.3 this year, his average fastball velocity (94 mph), WHIP (1.15), ERA (2.44) and opponent average (.223) were all in line with his previous performance.
On the other hand, there’s Dave Cameron: “Heath Bell has been an elite reliever in three of his seven seasons. But I’m sure he can go 3 for 3 from age 34-36.”
Yeah, but Bell’s been really good for five straight seasons. His strikeout rate did drop this year, somewhat bizarrely. Truthfully, his 2.44 was partly the result of his .269 BABiP, which isn’t sustainable; Bell’s career mark is .307.
He was lucky.
But Stark’s right, too. His fastball seemed fine, and his walk rate was dead in line with his career rate. Bell’s Bizarrely Shrunken Strikeout Rate should have been a concern to anyone thinking about investing ... oh, let’s say $36 million in a 34-year-old relief pitcher. If the Marlins don’t perform due diligence, it’s going to come back and bite them. Bad. If not with Heath Bell, then with someone else.
But you know, relief pitchers don't throw a great many innings. Odd things can happen. In 2006, Mariano Rivera struck out 55 batters in 75 innings; two years later, he struck out 77 batters in 71 innings. Was Rivera a different pitcher in those two seasons? Probably not. He was probably the same pitcher, who just happened to be somewhat strikeout-unlucky in the former season.
If Heath Bell had struck out two more batters in each month of the 2011 season, we wouldn’t be having this particular conversation. These last five paragraphs wouldn’t exist.
But those five grafs had to exist, because people were asking questions. And while the answer might not be 100-percent satisfying, it’s still pretty good. Heath Bell is probably the same pitcher today that he was in 2009 and ‘10.
Is the 2009-2010 Heath Bell worth $27 million over the next three seasons? Or $36 million over the next four?
Well, not really. Probably not. At his best, Heath Bell is worth around $9 million per season. But of course he won’t be at his best in every season. And switching from the pitcher’s park in San Diego to the Marlins’ new home isn’t likely to do him any favors, either.
If Bell’s healthy, the Marlins won’t be particularly disappointed. As long as he’s pitching like he’s pitched, he’ll be worth roughly $9 million per season and -- unless they were foolish enough to include a no-trade clause in his contract -- they can always swap him to a contender if they don’t need a $9 million relief pitcher.
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