In a theme we're getting used to, starting pitching is very thin on the free agent market this off-season. C.J. Wilson is at the top of the pile, and he's been a starter for all of two years. Not only is there no one comparable to Wilson, but there isn't even a clear 1-A tier beneath him, since Hiroki Kuroda might not ever leave Los Angeles, and Roy Oswalt's back makes him a question mark. It's the bargain bin and buy-low starters that make up most of the available talent, ready to sign with the teams looking to avoid paying Edwin Jackson many dollars over many years.
Bargain Bin Starting Pitching Bazaar
Afraid of what your team spending money on C.J. Wilson could lead to? Have a look at the bargain bin before the winter meetings kick off.
We’ve compiled a few of the best from the bargain bin with the Winter Meetings coming up next week, to help you shore up your team’s rotation.
Chris Capuano: Capuano might be the jewel of the bargain class. A look at his strikeout rates makes you wonder why no one talks about him -- his 8.1 strikeouts per nine ranked #25 among qualifying starters, while his 3.2 K/BB was 27, behind Kuroda and Javier Vazquez, and ahead of Anibal Sanchez and Michael Pineda. The reason he fits into the buy-low group is the long ball: Capuano allowed 27 in 186 frames for the Mets, and in his career has given up 1.3 per nine. Earlier in his career, his home park in Milwaukee was at least partially to blame, but excuses for homeritis are tough to come by at Citi Field.
His 4.55 ERA was uninspiring (ERA+ of just 82), but FIP likes him better, thanks to that K/BB: His FIP was 4.04, eight percent better than average. He isn’t going to win a division for you by himself -- though, if Boston had acquired him for one start like they wanted to last September, he theoretically could have -- but he’s the perfect depth signing for the back of a rotation. He’ll come cheap, and might not excite the fan base, but he is likely to get the job done.
Paul Maholm: Maholm, like many of these starters, is underrated. His 2011 season, when he posted a 3.66 ERA, has made people await his return to reality, but the real Maholm lies in between his past and his present. Maholm pitched in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball for his entire career in Pittsburgh. The Pirates finished in the bottom-third in Defensive Efficiency in every season of Maholm's career, save his rookie campaign. (Defensive Efficiency measures the percentage of balls in play converted into outs.) As a pitch-to-contact hurler with well over 50 percent grounders in his career, that's an issue. This is reflected in his FIP: in 2007 and 2009, his ERA was more than half-a-run worse than his FIP, and in 2010 he was nearly a full run worse.
Maholm has thrown 30-plus starts in three of the last four years, and with a better defense behind him, could likely approach 200 innings again for the first time since 2008. He made just $5.75 million last year with Pittsburgh, and there is no reason to believe much more than that is coming his way. Not a bad price tag for a starter who just might be an average innings eater.
Bartolo Colon: Through the miracles of experimental surgery, Bartolo Colon was able to start 26 games and throw 164 innings for the Yankees in 2011. His previously shredded shoulder underwent a procedure in the Dominican Republic, wherein stem cells were injected to repair damaged tissue. It's hard to argue with the living, breathing, and most importantly, pitching advertisement for that doctor's services: Colon posted his highest strikeout rate since 2001, as well as a 3.4 K/BB.
That being said, he is still in the bargain section. Colon is going to be 39 years old, and no one yet knows if the procedure is going to work these wonders for more than a year. The 164 innings was the most he had thrown since 2005, and while that’s impressive, there is no guarantee he can give you more than that going forward. For a team looking to add a pitcher on a one-year deal, though, they could do a lot worse than Colon.
Erik Bedard: Maybe you like the idea of Capuano or Maholm, but you want someone with more upside. Enter Bedard, who struck out 8.7 per nine last year, and posted a K/BB of 2.6. He he thrown enough innings to qualify, that strikeout rate would have ranked #15 in the majors. But that's always the rub with Bedard: he just isn't going to throw those frames.
That helps drive down his price, though, as whoever signs Bedard doesn’t know if they are getting him for three or thirty starts. Incentives will likely be the name of the game for him, and while he did miss time with a knee injury last year, his oft-repaired left shoulder finally held together. Given part of the time missed with the knee could have been to protect his trade value in Seattle (and to save him for innings that mattered, but never materialized, in Boston), it’s possible 2011 is underselling him, too.
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