On paper, it’s one of the biggest mismatches in the 2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket: No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Long Island is the quintessential first round game (in the NCAA Tournament’s Second Round, I guess?) pitting a college basketball blue-blood against an upstart with a fraction of the talent. But then, isn’t throwing away the paper half the fun of March Madness? Bet on this game being one of the best in the early goings of the 2011 NCAA Tournament schedule when it takes place on Friday, March 18 at 7:15 p.m. on CBS. Can the Blackbirds give Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg a classic?
NCAA Bracket Preview, East Region Predictions: No. 2 North Carolina Vs. No. 15 Long Island
The Tar Heels have at least four players who are NBA talents — Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller — and a bench laden with other talent. They won the ACC's regular season title and were only second best to Duke in the ACC Tournament. They are long and fast, and were gelling at the end of the season, putting together a 14-2 record over their final 16 games, with those two losses coming to Duke at Cameron and at a neutral site. In a bracket without Ohio State on top, North Carolina might be a trendy Final Four pick; as is, it's hard not to imagine the Heels steaming to the Elite Eight.
Long Island, though, is no pushover. The Blackbirds can run and shoot, and they've done that better than any other team in the 2011 NCAA Tournament field, ranking fourth nationally in Tempo. They get to the line (Long Island leads the country in free throws per field goal) and score in buckets: they've been held under 80 points just six times this season. They also defend the three-pointer very well (ninth nationally in opponents' three-point percentage at 30%) and tend to lock down opponents with guards. Of course, relying on quick perimeter players like C.J. Garner, Kyle Johnson, and David Hicks becomes slightly more necessary in Long Island's case: the Blackbirds don't start a player taller than 6'7".
Star Watch: Kendall Marshall is the key to North Carolina’s success. He’s very much a distributor at the point guard position, but his keen eye and expert passing skills have already separated him as a rare freshman floor general. If he can help the Heels handle what is sure to be a breakneck pace at some point, North Carolina will win comfortably.
Prediction: North Carolina wins, 89-82, but trails by more than five points at one juncture and gives Twitter reasons to both “Whoa” and “Uh-oh” thanks to its mercurial freshmen.
More Reading: SB Nation’s North Carolina blog, Carolina March, will have everything covered from a Tar Heels perspective. And you can check out SB Nation New York for regional takes on Long Island.
Need help picking your bracket? Check out SB Nation’s full 2011 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions, picking every game of March Madness, or our region by region breakdowns for East Region, West Region, Southeast Region, and Southwest Region.
Did your team miss the 2011 NCAA Tournament? We have you covered: check out the 2011 NIT bracket.
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