NCAA Bracket Preview, Predictions: No. 5 West Virginia Vs. No. 12 Clemson

The addition of the First Four to the 2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket created a really interesting matchup in the first game of the “Second Round” that everyone in your office pool will be calling the opening round: No. 5 West Virginia Vs. No. 12 Clemson, in a game played about 36 hours after Clemson’s 70-52 win over UAB in Dayton. The game is at 12:15 p.m. on Thursday from Tampa, and the tired Tigers get to lead off an entire round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament schedule. That might be consolation should they crash and burn against the Mountaineers.

West Virginia’s not the rugged, talented squad it was last year, when Da’Sean Butler helped carry Bob Huggins’ team all the way to the Final Four. But the Mountaineers are great at two things that are very valuable come March: offensive rebounding and three-point defense. The Mountaineers snag 39.7% of available offensive rebounds and allow opponents to shoot a mere 29.1% from deep, which means this team might be able to keep scores down and bang inside. In less positive numbers, West Virginia racked up just three road wins in the rugged Big East, the best coming in a 65-59 win over Georgetown on Jan. 8. Look for Darryl “Truck” Bryant and John Flowers to lead the Mountaineers, and for Casey Mitchell to do a bit of support.

Clemson has to worry about fatigue, but the Tigers shouldn’t worry about defense: they have the sixth-best defensive efficiency in the nation, and fare well in component statistics, ranking in the top 25 nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage allowed, block percentage, and steal percentage. All that makes up for a mediocre offense that Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant power. Grant is undersized, but can be a load down low, while Stitt and mighty mite point guard Andre Young provide adequate shooting from outside.

Star Watch: Andre Young’s shot selection could be Clemson’s key. He shoots nearly 40% from three-point range and just under 42% on twos, meaning that if he can avoid wasting possessions on bad long two-pointers and convert them into made threes, the Tigers might benefit.

Prediction: Clemson has one less run than is needed, and West Virginia pulls away late for a 71-59 win.

More Reading: SB Nation’s West Virginia blog The Smoking Musket is your Mountaineer fan community, while Shakin The Southland, our Clemson blog, has you covered for everything Tigers.

Need help picking your bracket? Check out SB Nation’s full 2011 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions, picking every game of March Madness, or our region by region breakdowns for the East Region, West Region, Southeast Region, and Southwest Region.

Did your team miss the 2011 NCAA Tournament? We have you covered: check out the 2011 NIT bracket.