March Madness Bracket Predictions: Upsets Picks For Thursday’s First Round Games

Pencils down! No more number crunching and agonizing over your March Madness bracket; the 2011 NCAA Tournament is officially here, the stage of 64 has been set and your brackets are officially live.
If you have been paying attention to the stats, trends and analysis at OddsShark.com, which has been crunching odds information, betting patterns and conference styles, you have probably trended toward some interesting upset picks. If you haven’t, here’s a look at a couple surprises we might see from Thursday’s opening round.
Trouble Bruin in UCLA
One of the most intriguing matchups on the board is the Michigan State Spartans taking on the UCLA Bruins. Each has been a tournament darling in recent years and it’s rare to see the 10 seed favored over the 7 seed.
Both Michigan State and UCLA have taken very different paths to this point. The Spartans entered the season ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25, and were considered a favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is a young team, and in the weak Pac-10, many considered them to still be a year away from a trip to the tourney. [ Full Preview & Trends ]
But the regular season played out quite differently than the projections. UCLA exceeded expectations with a 22-10 (15-15-1) record, including convincing wins over Arizona and BYU and just narrowly missing an upset on the road over Kansas in a one-point loss. Michigan State struggled mightily in Big Ten play, and would have missed the tournament completely if not for a solid finish (finishing 19-14, 11-19-1 ATS).
The clear difference between these two teams is experience; three of UCLA’s top four scorers are underclassmen, and they don’t have a single senior on their roster. All three of Michigan State’s leading scorers are upperclassmen, including senior guards Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers.
Under Coach Tom Izzo, Lucas and Summers have never failed to reach the Sweet 16, and have reached the Final Four the last two seasons. They are quite difficult to pick against come March. But if the young Bruins play up to their potential and aren’t overwhelmed by the atmosphere, they’ve got more than enough talent to win tonight.
Arachnophobia Rules
Richmond is about to become one of two 12 seeds to wreck the tournament for 5 seeds. The Spiders take out Vandy, even as the betting public starts backing the Commodores in this Southwest Region matchup.
Richmond is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their past dozen games, so they come in hot. [ Full Preview & Trends ]
Aggie Agony for K-State
Who is the second 12 seed to advance today? Utah State, winners of the WAC and owners of a 30-3 mark, have what it takes to dump Kansas State out in the first round. Jacob Pullen lovers may disagree and if he goes off, all bets are off.
But the Aggies finished 11th in the OddsShark.com final power poll of college teams – ahead of K-State. And our experts have them pulling the upset and winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs. [ Full Preview & Trends ]
Mizzou Misery for Cincy
We liked Cincinnati but the more we looked at Missouri and the more the betting public pounded money on the underdog 11 seed, the more we added the Tigers to our brackets.
While the line originally swung in favor of the Bearcats, smart money has hit Mizzou this week and their uptempo defense may be more than Cincy can stomach. [ Full Preview & Trends ]
Gauchos Cover Gators?
We don’t predict an upset here, but we like UCSB to cover the number against Florida. The Gators have been drags on your wallet as a double-digit favorite lately, going 7-1 SU, but just 1-7 ATS.
For full previews, matchup reports, trends and bracket updates, bookmark SB Nation’s lines provider Odds Shark for the best tournament information.