The Phillies Pitching Has Four Aces, But Are They Worth Betting On?

One of the biggest surprises of the offseason hit on Dec. 15 when Cliff Lee shunned the team he led to the World Series and thumbed his nose at extra Yankee millions in order to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The move gave the Phillies one of the potentially greatest staffs in baseball history, bumped them to World Series favorite status (they are currently the favorites at +200 to go all the way at most shops tracked by SB Nation lines partner OddsShark.com).

But will those four studs combine for 60 wins or more? That is the magic number that would reward OVER bettors in this baseball preseason prop.

“Injuries happen, slumps happen, bullpens fall part – there are plenty of risk factors in making this bet, but it’s awfully tempting when you look at what each man is capable of,” said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com. “And when you look at the home run future odds and other hitter lines, you see reasons why this staff may obliterate this number.”

Last season was dubbed by many the Year of the Pitcher, with perfect games, playoff no-hitters and capped off by the excellent staff in San Francisco winning the World Series.

Will 2011 be an encore?

For preseason MLB odds and analysis all season long, check out Odds Shark. Here’s a look at some interesting pitching future props that are currently available.

4 Aces Total Regular Season Wins: Over 59.5 (-115) / Under 59.5 (-115) – Having four aces at the poker table is money in the bank, but does having four aces on your staff guarantee 60 or more personal wins for those pitchers?

The 4 Aces prop covers the collected wins of Roy Halladay (21 wins in 2010), Cliff Lee (12), Roy Oswalt (13), and Cole Hamels (12). With Philadelphia’s offense and the talent of these four pitchers (all but Hamels have had 20-win seasons in the past), 60 combined wins is quite reasonable.

Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher: Over 20.5 (-160) / Under 20.5 (+130) – Getting to 21 wins is a great accomplishment for modern day pitchers. The feat was accomplished by two pitchers in 2010 (Halladay and CC Sabathia with 21 each) and 2008 (Lee and Brandon Webb with 22 each), but didn’t hit in 2006, ’07, or ‘09. Halladay, Sabathia, Lee, and perhaps Jon Lester or Josh Beckett are possible candidates in 2011.

Most Regular Season Strikeouts by Any Pitcher: Over 243.5 (-115) / Under 243.5 (-115) – Even in the Year of the Pitcher, no one came close to this mark last season with Jered Weaver topping the list at 233. The mark was hit by two pitchers in both 2009 (Justin Verlander, 269, and Tim Lincecum, 261) and 2008 (Lincecum, 265, and Sabathia, 251). Lincecum and Felix Hernandez should push the total in 2011, with dark horses Verlander and Zack Greinke

Most Regular Season Saves by Any Pitcher: Over 47.5 (-115) / Under 47.5 (-115) – The 48-save mark has only been reached 17 times in baseball history. That said, it has been reached in three straight years (Brian Wilson and Brian Fuentes with 48 in 2009 and 2010, and Francisco Rodriguez with 62 in 2008). In 2005-07, the leader in saves finished with exactly 47. Expect this wager to come right down to the wire.