Sweet 16 Predictions, Preview: Kansas Jayhawks Vs. Richmond Spiders, 7:27 ET Friday

The 2011 NCAA Tournament bracket has dealt Kansas a winning hand. The Jayhawks only need to beat No. 12 Richmond and either No. 10 Florida State or No. 11 VCU to earn a Final Four berth, which is both one of the easiest NCAA Tournament roads by seed any team would have taken, and one reminiscent of the 2008 national champion Jayhawks’ road to the Final Four. But Richmond’s no slouch, and the Jayhawks will have to take care of the next team on their part of the 2011 NCAA Tournament schedule. Kansas vs. Richmond tips from San Antonio at 7:15 p.m. Eastern on Friday, and announcers Marv Albert and Steve Kerr will have the call on TBS.

Kansas fans would probably appreciate the Jayhawks finding their best gear for a full game in this NCAA Tournament. After a lackadaisical first half against Boston and a closer-than-expected first 30 minutes against Illinois, Kansas hit the jets, cruising to double-digit wins in both games. That might not work against Richmond: the Spiders came through late against Vanderbilt and led throughout against Morehead State. Kansas, as always, is the more talented team, from Marcus and Markieff Morris to Tyshawn Taylor and Brady Morningstar, but the question that has dogged the Jayhawks all year remains: can that talent reveal itself for a full 40 minutes?

Richmond’s talent deficit to Kansas is real and enormous: only Jamie Harper and Kevin Anderson might get looks in Lawrence, and of the Spiders, only Harper is going to get an NBA shot. (Compare that to the Kansas roster, which could have four or five future NBA players.) The Spiders make up for it with precise offense and dead-eye shooting: Harper, Anderson, Dan Geriot, and Darien Brothers all shoot better than 40% from three-point range, and slacker Francis-Cedric Martel — yes, he’s French — lags behind at 39.2%. All five players have made at least 20 threes this season, too. Kansas defends the perimeter well (eighth nationally in opponents’ three-point percentage at 29.6%), but all it takes is one string of three or four triples for the Spiders to build an early lead.

Star Watch: Josh Selby rarely gets mentioned as one of college basketball’s best freshmen, but it’s more for lack of focus and midrange game than an overall lack of talent. If he can come off the bench and spark a Kansas second unit that might not produce as efficiently against the Spiders, it could tip this game.

Prediction: Richmond won’t quit or die quietly. But the Spiders just don’t have enough bulk to hang with Kansas inside, and they will fall, 82-73.

More Reading: SB Nation’s Rock Chalk Talk is a lively Kansas fan community and a great place for Jayhawks analysis, and SB Nation DC has the story of Richmond’s Sweet 16 run.

Need help catching up with all the action? Here’s a printable NCAA Tournament bracket and an updated Sweet 16 schedule.