Sweet 16 Betting Trends: Stick With NCAA Tournament Favorites

After a wild run of upsets in the first two rounds of the 2011 NCAA Tournament, 16 teams remain, and a few days off have given fans and favorites a chance to regain some composure.
On top of researching the statistics and performances of the last few weeks while handicapping the Sweet 16 matchups, bettors must also consider trends that seem to point to success for the top seeds, both in the bracket and at the pay window.
“In a flood, there is safety in getting to higher ground and in the past few years, despite a flood of upsets, higher seeds have been safe picks in the Sweet 16,” said Mark Presley of OddsShark.com, SB Nation’s lines partner. “It’s one thing to pick the top dog in your Sweet 16 bracket game, but quite another to pick them to cover the spread at the book.”
Sweet 16 Trends
The theme in the Sweet 16 is to stick with the favorites. Over the last few seasons, favorites are 13-7 ATS in 20 games. 1-seeds (Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke this season) have been even more dominant, fighting off the hype and threats from Cinderellas, to go 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at this stage.
Seeds 10 or higher are just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 games, including last season; 10-seed Saint Mary’s, 11-seed Washington, and 12-seed Cornell all advanced to the Sweet 16 and failed to cover the spread in this round.
This year, a 10, pair of 11’s and a 12 grace the Sweet 16. Three of them – Richmond, VCU and Marquette – own terrific underdog trends which should get the attention of Sweet 16 bracketeers and bettors alike.
These exclude some of the zanier wagers out there, for which there are no real trends, such as ‘will the winning mascot be a human, mammal, bird, reptile or ‘other.’ If you were wondering what ‘other’ means, it includes Spiders, Blue Devils and Buckeyes, which is a good reason why ‘other’ has the best odds!
Team-Specific Trends
Ohio State is 7-1 ATS in their last eight as the favorite.
Marquette is 16-4 ATS as an underdog over their last 20, and the UNDER is 14-2 in the last 16 that Marquette was the ‘dog. North Carolina is a perfect 10-0 SU, but just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. [ UNC Matchup Report ]
Arizona’s last seven games as an underdog have gone UNDER. [ Duke Preview ]
San Diego State is an impressive 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 away from their home court.
Kansas may struggle ATS, going just 2-4-1 ATS at this stage in the tournament over the last 10 years and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite. Richmond has gone 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 as an underdog, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away from home. [ Kansas vs Richmond Odds ]

MORE NOTES

Florida State is a dominant 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight as the favorite. ... Virginia Commonwealth is 7-2 ATS both in their last nine road games and their last nine as an underdog. ... Butler has won 11 in a row SU, and has also fared well in the underdog role at 10-1 ATS in their last 11 as a ‘dog. ... Florida is 16-2 SU in their last 18 games, and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six as the favorite.

For more, check out OddShark.com where we have live odds, sportsbook reviews, matchup reports, scores, trends and more on every game.