A year ago, the Cincinnati Reds weren’t completely off the radar. Granted, some of the cognoscenti actually were talking about the Reds with some excitement a year ago. But few fans beyond the Rhineland figured the Reds would actually win 91 games, let alone vanquish the Redbirds with plenty of room to spare.
Neyer: Which Team is This Season’s 2010 Reds?
Generally speaking, we can’t identify teams like the 2010 Reds or (particularly) the 2010 Padres because they are unidentifiable.
Okay, so there some wise guys who thought the Giants were for real, and there were a lot of seamheads who predicted some (though not all) of the Devil Rays’ success in 2008. This is tough stuff, though. Were it easy, we’d have put the oddsmakers out of business a long time ago. And last I checked, their business was still good.
Let’s take a cut at it, though. Here are four teams that might, with a few breaks along the way, come out of (almost) nowhere to at least challenge for a spot in the postseason tournament ...
Los Angeles Dodgers
2010 Record: 80-82
2009 Record: 95-67
You know about the Plexiglass Principle, right? What goes up usually comes down. And vice versa. Fundamentally the Dodgers probably weren’t as good as they looked in 2009, or as bad as they looked in 2010, which means they’re probably due for a nice little rebound. Particularly if Don Mattingly can light a fire under Matt Kemp and get good work from a Dodger bullpen that ranked among the National League’s worst last season.
Florida Marlins
2010 Record: 80-82
2009 Record: 87-75
It’s not really the Plexiglass Principle here, so much as the tendency for young players to improve with maturity. Gaby Sanchez, Chris Coghlan, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Logan Harrison ... all are still at ages where we probably haven’t seen their absolute best. And that’s just the hitters, as the Marlins are stacked with talented young starting pitchers, as well. They won’t all improve this season; most will, some won’t, and the overall impact will probably leave the Marlins short of paydirt. But are these Marlins so different from those Cincinnati Reds?
Oakland Athletics
2010 Record: 81-81
2009 Record: 75-87
The A’s aren’t actually going to take many people by surprise. Though they’ve been in the doldrums for years, baseball people love young pitchers and the Athletics are loaded with ‘em. But what might make the difference this season is Oakland’s completely revamped outfield, including newcomers Josh Willingham and David DeJesus. Last year’s squad finished 11th in the American League in scoring; if this year’s can just move up to the middle of the pack, the A’s are going to give the Rangers all they can handle.
Baltimore Orioles
2010 Record: 66-96
2009 Record: 64-98
Leaving aside the ravings of those Baltimoreans who think Vladimir Guerrero still ranks among the game’s best hitters, the Orioles are not going to contend for anything other than fourth place. But between the talented young pitchers, Guerrero and Derrek Lee, and Buck Showalter’s managerial acumen, the Orioles seem to have a decent chance at their first winning season since well into the last century. No, it ain’t the Reds. But it ain’t bad, either.
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