MLB Odds For 2011: Props, Futures, And Home Run Totals

With Spring Training in full swing, Vegas is getting ready, too, with the odds for 2011 MLB season prop bets rolling out in full force. And baseball fans and fantasy junkies who really know their stuff can make some tidy profits. Are sportsbooks predicting a resurgence in offense after 2010 was the Year of the Pitcher?

Not exactly, according to prop odds gathered by SB Nation’s lines partner OddsShark.com.

Let's start with most home runs by any player, which was given a total of 46.5. For the betting rookie that means you have to decide whether the total for any MLB player will go over or under 46.5 dingers.

"If this total were used last season, it would have been an easy OVER as Jose Bautista jacked an MLB-high 54 home runs, but who would have predicted that?" said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com.

"Albert Pujols was second in homers, but he hit only 42 bombs. Much of the early action has landed on the UNDER."

Consider that before last year's power explosion, Bautista's career high was 16 homers, and he had only hit 59 homers in his entire career. Look for him to drop into the 30-homer range and take the UNDER on this total, while A-Rod’s push for Barry Bonds’ career mark isn’t going to surge in 2011if the sportsbooks have it right.

Hitters hitting the jackpot?

Stepping away from the sluggers let's look at most hits by a player this season. The total was set at 214.5 hits. You can probably guess that Ichiro Suzuki led the Majors in hits last season, but how many did he have? The answer is 214, just below this year's posted total.

Only one other player reached 200 hits last season, and Robinson Cano hit the mark right on the nose with 200. Josh Hamilton collected 186 hits in only 133 games last season and looks like a good candidate to top 214 hits this season, but can he stay healthy for a whole year?

The chances of that don't look very good, and with Suzuki a year older (believe it or not he is 37) the UNDER looks like the winner here too.

Pitching the value of pitcher odds

What about pitchers' numbers? If pitchers continue to thrive in 2011 their numbers should keep going up, right? Well, the oddsmakers have taken that into consideration. Look at the totals for most wins and most strikeouts.

For most wins the total was set at 20.5, but the OVER is heavily favored at -160. Last season two pitchers, Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia, posted 21 wins, and it wouldn't be a shock to see both of them do it again. That's why the OVER is such big chalk.

"Some handicappers like to see the most recent starts from last years to project ahead for 2011 and the searchable pitcher database is a great place to start," said Pickett.

For most strikeouts the oddsmakers have gone with a high total of 243.5. It may not seem that high, but it is when you consider that Jered Weaver led the Majors in strikeouts last season with 233. That's down a lot from 2009, when Justin Verlander clocked 269 Ks and Tim Lincecum notched 261 punchouts.

Both flamethrowers saw their innings dip last season, and if they rise again this season they could both soar past 243.5 easily.