Baseball fans aren’t comfortable with the concept of luck.
Matt Garza: Really Good, Really Unlucky
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Sabermetricians aren’t comfortable with wildly out-of-character statistics.
Can’t we all just get along?
Maybe not. Yesterday I pointed out, as gently as I know how, that while Jered Weaver is obviously an outstanding pitcher, he probably wouldn't sport a 0.99 ERA through six starts without a fair amount of good luck. As you might guess, this did not endear me to his fans, and even resulted in at least one suggestion that I wouldn't write such terrible things if only I had seen every moment of every one of Weaver's starts this season.
Perhaps. But there's only so much time, and Charlie Morton deserves some of my attention, too.
Today i would like to accentuate the positive, if only as a public service for Cubs fans ...
Jered Weaver is 6-0 with that 0.99 ERA.
Matt Garza is 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA.
Both pitchers lead their leagues in strikeouts. Garza’s got a 4.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio, seventh best in the National League. Weaver’s got a 4.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio, fourth best in the American League. Weaver has allowed two home runs in 46 innings. Garza has allowed zero home runs in 31 innings.
Garza’s pitching in the easier league, and he’s averaged only six innings per start, compared to Weaver’s eight. Garza certainly hasn’t pitched as well as Weaver.
But the difference between them, to this point in the season, isn’t nearly as large as their records or their ERAs suggest.
In his career, Garza’s given up a .292 batting batting average on balls in play, which is a perfectly typical figure.
This season, it’s been .429.
In his career, Weaver’s given up a .282 batting average on balls in play, which is an excellent figure in this era.
This season, it’s been .220.
In terms of strikeouts and home runs, Garza’s never pitched this well before and it’s not likely that he’ll keep pitching this well. Which makes his 0-3 record seem hardly fair, because there’s no guarantee that his luck will even out as the season progresses.
To this point, though? In terms of the things that pitchers are able to control, with their skills, there’s not been a huge difference between 6-0 Jered Weaver and 0-3 Matt Garza.
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