In April (and forever, really), we talk a lot about “small sample size” (SSS).
April Standings Mean More Than You Might Think
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Small sample size explains Placido Polanco's .380 batting average, and Jered Weaver's 0.99 ERA. Small sample size explains the Legend of Sam Fuld. Well, begins to explain it.
We just shouldn’t pay much attention to players’ statistics in April, because they mean little relative to what the players have done in previous seasons. I’m often asked by radio hosts when the numbers “really start to mean something,” and of course the correct answer is that there’s not a particular moment when the numbers become meaningful. With each day, they become a little more meaningful than the day before.
That said, when it comes to players I really don’t pay much attention to statistics until sometime in May, or early June. That’s not science. It’s preference, and probably habit.
Team performance seems different, though.
It seems like every April -- near the end of April, anyway -- I look at the standings and they make sense.
Right now, how many big surprises can you find?
There are six divisions, and only one of them is truly surprising. I think it's safe to say that nobody expected the Indians to sit atop the standings with a 14-8 record nearly a month into the season. Nobody really expected the Twins and White Sox to bring up the rear, with run differentials to match.
Sure, there are some other surprises, in the middle of the standings. The Red Sox figure to having a winning record eventually. Ditto for the Braves, and the Marlins might eventually fall back to the pack. But with those minor exceptions, it's hard to find teams that haven't already found their natural level, as measured by our preseason expectations.
Postscript: Just as a reality check, here are last year’s standings after roughly the same number of games. Again, not many surprises, at least relative to how the season ended up. The Red Sox were losing, and everybody in the American League West was sitting around .500. The Mets were winning, and the Braves were losing. Otherwise, though, not much was amiss in late April.
That doesn’t mean some crazy stuff won’t happen between now and October. But most of the real work is done before the season. Within the limits of luck and various other mysterious things, these teams enter the season as the teams they will be.
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